Around The World Voyage : Commentary

December 16, 2001 PST

Sunday 2:05 PM PST -- your Monday 9:05 AM

Dear Dave:

I just tried to call you -- got your message on my cellular. The last email I got from Walt was my Saturday night (Dec. 15) I have been down loading the weather every few hours and the latest is that the storm is about 90 miles northwest of you. It is showing winds of 35 knots within 50 miles of the storm. The track is taking it almost directly to Pohnpei with it moving only about 60 miles north west every 24 hours for the next two days -- then accelerating after 48 hours to about 120 miles a day -- still moving northwest. It shows the storm 50 miles southwest of Pohnpei at 1800 GMT on the 19th. This thing is still being shown as a tropical storm with sustained winds of 35 with gusts to 45 now -- and increasing over the next 48 hours.

The Raytech overlay shows no problem -- you'd never even know there was a storm in the area. It's predicting winds of 20 knots or less all the way past Pohnpei for the next 72 hours. I can't figure it out how it can show conditions so different from what is being predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center - Navy and Airforce.

I'm sorry to say -- that unless we get some compelling information from (forecaster Walt Hack) or higher - I don't see you leaving for at least another 24 hours -- and only then if the storm improves from what is predicted.

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