Around The World Voyage : Commentary

December 18, 2001 PST

Dear Dave

Here's the latest I have on the storm. It's now 11:10 AM PST - 19:10 GMT - December 18th. The report is four hours old now - another report will be issued in two hours.

It looks like it's weakening but has turhed back to the East. They say that within 12 hours it will move back to the west.

I spoke with (weather forecaster) Walt Hack a few minutes ago and he feels that you might be able to depart tomorrow around your noon time.

Regards,

Jim

WTPN31 PGTW 181500

1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 5.8N3 161.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 5.8N3 161.4E2

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 5.9N4 160.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 6.1N7 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 6.7N3 158.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 7.5N2 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 9.1N0 154.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.8N3 161.3E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS DRIFTED EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE VORTEX CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2, 190300Z3, 190900Z9 AND 191500Z6.//


 

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