Around The World Voyage : Commentary : Leg 4

May 28, 2002

Dear Dan:

Glad to see the Canal transit was success!

Now into the Pacific, your weather looks good. The winds are predicted to blow between 10 and 15 knots out of the west - southwest. This will still be forward of your beam as your direction of travel is northwest. The current is favorable - showing a northwesterly set of about 1/2 knot. The winds are predicted to be the lightest close to shore.

By Saturday, the winds are predicted to die down to calm conditions.

Now the not so good news:

There is a Tropical storm - soon to be a Hurricane to the northwest of you. Its over 1,500 miles away and nothing to worry about but, it's an indication of the early potential for development of these storms. This storm "ALMA" should move off to the north and then hook to the east as it loses power in the cooler waters.

I've got a call into Walt Hack now to get him watching for new tropical storms developing.

Here's the official statement on tropical storm ALMA.

WTPN31 PHNC 281600 SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALMA) WARNING NR 016
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
    ---

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 12.7N0 113.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 16.0N7 115.5W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---

72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 19.0N0 114.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---

REMARKS:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01E (ALMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281200Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 KNZY FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z4, 290400Z5, 291000Z2 AND 291600Z8.//

 

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