Around The World Voyage : Commentary : Leg 4

May 29, 2002

Dear Dan:

The Hurricane is still going strong. It's moving along it's North-Northwesterly course. The official statement by the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center is as follows:

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
1. HURRICANE 01E (ALMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 13.5N9 115.0W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N9 115.0W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.7N2 115.8W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 16.0N7 116.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 17.0N8 115.8W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.0N9 115.5W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.0N0 114.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
HURRICANE 01E (ALMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291200Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 KNZY FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z5, 300400Z7,
301000Z4 AND 301600Z0.//

Here's Walt Hack's statement received today: 29 May 02

"Have been watching ALMA's movements and so far, projected tracks of the tropical system do not directly threaten the vessel's coastal route toward Baja. However, there is still a low risk that Hrcn/ALMA may continue a more northerly track after Sat/01st instead of slowing and/or stalling at the forecasted position of Sun/01st, due to possible continued interaction with an upper-air trough over Baja at that time. It would therefore be very prudent NOT to discount ALMA's threat as yet. Meantime, based on yesterday's estimated position about 100nm out of BalboaCZ (referring to NORDHAVN), during these coming three days, wind/sea conditions along the Central American coast from CR to the Gulf of T'pec will remain generally moderate SW to W. There is some scattered heavy convective showers along and off the coast from Costa Rico to Guatemala, and some near Acapulco, and although no rotation at present, these areas should be watched for any further sig tropical development. From Gulf Tehuantepec northward to southern Baja waters, winds veer WSW to NW, mostly in Force/4-5 range..with some lumpy swells to 8-10 ft northward of Acapulco to north of Cabo Corrientes, mostly SW, from the offshore ALMA fetch. Thus, til vessel passes Gulf T'pec, dominant wind/swell will be SW-WSW 08-20kt, and SW 3-5ft swell."

It seems to me that the weather is looking favorable to cut straight across the gulf of Tawanapec for Saturday (if you arrive by then). I'll continue to watch all this very carefully. I suggest you stay close to shore and think ahead to places you could duck into if anything new pops up. I think all of this is going to do nothing more than guarantee you a smooth ride for the next few days.

 

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