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August 28, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1205UTC 28 AUG 2013

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE JOHNSTONE STRAITS (MAINLY ON THURSDAY)

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GEORGIA STRAITS (MAINLY ON THURSDAY)

The latest observations southward across the Georgia Straits and waters outside Vancouver currently indicate winds are variable 05-10kts. However, a more SE-ly flow is expected to develop during the day.

The pesky low pressure area well off the coast of Vancouver Island this morning will gradually drift toward the north/east (toward Queen Charlotte Sound) through tonight and on Thur. This will bring an increasing SE-ly flow during tonight but mostly on Thursday.

So, if you are still underway to Vancouver during Thursday, you should expect increasing SE-ly winds during Thur/am-afternoon. Arriving late tonight will bring increasing winds but they should remain (for the most part) under 25kts.

Wed 28/1200UTC - Thu 29/0600UTC (arrival Vancouver expected toward late in the period)
Wind: Variable to E-ESE to even more SE at times, 08-15kts. However, could freshen locally to 20-25kts in the Canyons and Passages. Along with some rain showers/drizzle and fog through Wed/eve-night.
Sea: Generally fetch limited. However, during stronger winds late tonight, seas over exposed waters could reach 2-3ft.

If your arrival is after Thur/29 0600UTC, then you should prefer to expect SE-ly 20-30kts, gusty/35kts along with the chances of some heavier periods of rain.

This will likely be our last scheduled forecast prior to arrival Vancouver, BC. We will continue to watch the pattern ahead and if there are changes to the forecast, we will advise.

If has been a pleasure and honor in providing our weather forecast and routing services for the maiden voyage of the Nordhavn 120 (Aurora).Even though you were not able to avoid the strongest winds as we had hoped, I certainly hope (for the most part) you knew the increased conditions were coming.

If we can be of further assistance, please let me know and I look forward to seeing you again at the Ft. Lauderdale Boat Show in early November....

B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 27, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1136UTC 27 AUG 2013

THEREA ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE HECATE STRAITS OR QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND WATERS

We note the following buoys reports at of 1100UTC

South Hecate Strait (5225N 12947W): S 14kt, G/16kt. Seas 6ft (8sec)
West Sea Otter (buoy 5123N 12846W): SW 14kt, G/16kts. Seas 5ft (8sec)
South Brooks (buoy 4944N 12755W): S 08kt G/10kt, Seas 6ft, (8sec)
South Moresby (buoy 5149N 13113W) S 08kt, Seas 7-8ft (8sec)

Broad low pressure will continue to persist well offshore across the SE Gulf of Alaska region through Wed/28th. As it does, the southerly flow across Queen Charlotte Sound and Vancouver Island will continue, but the pressure gradient associated with the low/front pattern will weaken. All watches/warning for the waters from your location to the Queen Charlotte Straits have been cancelled.

You should have a fairly stable pattern through arrival even though there will be the continued risk of showers/drizzle and fog through arrival.

Tue 27/1200UTC - Wed 28/0000UTC to the Queen Charlotte Straits/Johnstone Straits/Georgia Straits
Wind: In protected waters winds tending more variable to Easterly 05-10kts. Winds tend range ESE-SSW 10-20kts once over more exposed waters.
Sea: 1-3ft near the coast, upto 4ft possible more exposed waters.
Swell: Longer period SW-S 3-5ft, but combined sea/swells of 6-7ft very possible at times across Queen Charlotte Sound

Wed 28/0000UTC - Thu 29/0600UTC (arrival Vancouver expected during this time)
Winds: E-ESE to even more SE at times, 08-15kts. However, could freshen locally to 20-25kts in the Canyons and Passages. Along with some rain showers/drizzle and fog.
Seas: Generally fetch limited.

Watching/updating. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 26, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1721UTC 26 AUG 2013

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BETWEEN THE DIXON ENTRANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HECATE STRAITS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND

We note the following buoys reports at of 2300UTC (latest available)

West Dixon entrance (5409N 13416W): SE 10kt, G/12kt. Seas 6ft (8sec)
Central Dixon entrance (5421N 13225W): E 14kt, G/16kt. Seas 2-3ft (4sec)
North Hecate Straits (5337N 13106W): E 10kt, Seas 5ft (8sec)
South Hecate Strait (5225N 12947W): ESE 12kt, G/14kt. Seas 6-7ft (8sec)
West Sea Otter (buoy 5123N 12846W): SE 16kt, G/20kts. Seas 5ft (8sec)
South Brooks (buoy 4944N 12755W): SE 29kt G/37kt, Seas 9-10ft, (7sec)
South Moresby (buoy 5149N 13113W) SE 27kt, G/33kts. Seas 11-12ft (8sec)

Looking at the Live tracking reports I see you appear to be headed for the Prince Rupert area. This is also a viable option now that the conditions currently from the Dixon entrance south to the Hecate Straits have ease a bit. However, further south (south of the Hecate Straits) stronger winds are noted and expected to spread north across the Hecate Straits through tonight into early Tue/am

If you do plan to travel southward, then you will need to travel very close to the coast. This will help limit the sea heights a bit, but it won't do much about avoid the near/at Gale winds expected the further south you travel.

As the low pressure redevelops offshore through this evening, the pressure wind gradient should be at its highest during tonight and early Tue/am as the associated front tends to move closer (lays almost parallel to the coast, just off Vancouver Island to off of Queen Charlotte Island). It will be during this time when the winds to the south tend to freshen the most and the more exposed waters across Queen Charlotte Sound are exposed to the highest conditions.

So, stopping at the Prince Rupert area for the night and Tuesday is a good option. You will stay north of the highest winds expected to the south later today.Even if you get underway during Tue/pm residual conditions across the southern Hecate Straits and Queen Charlotte Sound could still make the ride a bit uncomfortable. Therefore, for a more comfortable ride, you should consider waiting until at least mid to late Wed/am and allow for conditions to the south to ease a bit more. Even though the direction won't change much, the wind speeds and sea heights will gradually come down as the pressure/wind gradient eases.

Along the direct route to the Dixon entrance to the Prince Rupert area

Mon 26/1700UTC - Tue 27/0000UTC to Prince Rupert
Wind: ESE-SE 15-25kt, occ 30kt and gusty.
Sea: 5-7ft, upto 8ft possible over the next few hours.
Swell: Confused to SSW 2-3ft exposed waters)

Basis a departure Wed/28 around 1500UTC expect

Wed 28/1500UTC - Thu 29/0000UTC Prince Rupert south via Hecate Straits to Queen Charlotte Straits/Johnstone Straits/Georgia Straits
Wind: ENE to ESE 10-18kts to start, tending to ease to 05-15kts through late in the period.
Sea: 2-4ft, but 1-2ft if staying closer to the coast.
Swell: Longer period SW-SSW 4-6ft, but 7-8ft swells not out of the question across the Queen Charlotte Sound.

Thu 29/0000UTC - Fri 30/0000UTC (arrival Vancouver expected during this time)
Winds: E-ESE to even more SE at times, 08-15kts. However, could freshen locally to 20-25kts in the Canyons and Passages. Along with some rain showers/drizzle and fog.
Seas: Generally fetch limited.

If you don't plan to stop at Prince Rupert, please advise and also advise when you plan to depart if stopping at Prince Rupert. We continue to watch and update. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 24, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1634UTC 24 AUG 2013

No significant changes in the pattern. No real good observations were noted across the eastern Gulf of Alaska from your current position toward the Dixon entrance. Satellite estimated winds across the area indicate westerly winds of 15kt.

Low pressure over the northern Gulf of Alaska is expected to move south/east through Sun/1200UTC to/near 56N 140W, which will be very close to your estimated position. However, by the time the low reaches this position, it should begin to stall and weaken which should linger through Mon/1200UTC. With the low weakening as it approaches 56N, wind/seas should ease a bit and the wind direction may even become more variable after Sun/1200UTC then more ENE-SE to the Dixon entrance.

There will be the threat of rain showers even pockets of heavier rain associated with the broader circulation around the low center prior to reaching the Dixon entrance and toward the Hecate Straits. Locally gusty winds of/above 25kts are possible in the heavier rain showers. Another route of heavier rain showers (locally heavy) could develop across the Queen Charlotte Straits toward Vancouver during Tue and Wed.

The low should redevelop/relocate to near 50N 140W through Tue/1200UTC then begins to deepen a bit through Wed/1200UTC.

Along the Great Circle route to the Dixon entrance then SSE across the Hecate Straits/Queen Charlotte Sound, adjusting your course/speed as necessary as conditions warrant, expect:

Sat 24/1800UTC - Sun 25/0000UTC
Wind: W-NW 15-20kts, gusty/25kts and gusty at times.
Sea: 4-6ft, chance upto 7-8ft at times.
Swell: W-WNW 4-6ft. Combined W-WNW sea/swells of 8-9ft possible.

Sun 25/0000UTC - Mon 26/0000UTC
Wind: W-NW 15-20kt, upto 25kts at times, but tending more Variable to NE-E by/after Sun/1600UTC-Mon/0000UTC
Sea: Mostly 4-6ft, but upto 7-8ft possible during periods of higher winds.
Swell: Westerly 4-6ft. Combined sea/swells of 7-8ft possible. Swells possibly more confused to southerly through Mon/0000UTC.

Mon 26/0000UTC - Tue 27/0000UTC (Reaching Dixon by Mon/1400UTC or so)
Wind: Var to ENE-SSE 15-25kt, gusty through Mon/1200UTC. Could be gusty winds and locally heavier rain during period.
Sea: 4-6ft, occ higher (7-8ft) in the stronger winds prior to reaching the Dixon entrance.
Swell: Confused to SSW 3-5ft. Lower swells after the Dixon entrance to the Hecate Straits.

Tue 27/0000UTC - Wed 28/0000UTC Hecate Straits to Queen Charlotte Straits/Johnstone Straits/Georgia Straits
Wind: ESE-SSE 12-20kt, gusty/25kts at times.
Sea: Ease from 4-5ft to 3-4ft across the Queen Charlotte Sounds. Low entering the Queen Charlotte Straits.
Swell: SSW-WSW 3-5ft, highest across the Hecate Staits to the Queen Charlotte Sound. Combined sea/swells may reach 6-7ft, briefly, across the Queen Charlotte Sound.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 23, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1702UTC 23 AUG 2013

Low pressure over the northern Gulf of Alaska (near 60N) is expected to move SE-ward over the 24-48hrs reaching 56N 140W through Sun/1200UTC. A trailing cold front will also move SE-ward, but we do expect both the low and front to begin weakening by Mon/0000UTC. This will bring an easing to the NW-ly winds/seas that develop between 150W-140W that should continue through arrival Dixon entrance. We do expect the low center to gradually redevelop SW of the Queen Charlotte Islands through Tue/1200UTC where it remains through Wed/1200UTC

The increasing WNW-NW wind/seas will tend to become more variable to ENE-ESE during the last 12-24hrs to the Dixon entrance. With the low expected to be nearly stationary to your south/west (SW of the Hecate Straits and Queen Charlotte Sound) the ESE winds will become more SSE-SW with a more WSW-SW swell from the Hecate Straits and Queen Charlotte Sound. There is still the chance of locally fresh winds through the passages during periods of increased SE-ly winds through arrival Vancouver.

Along the Great Circle route to the Dixon entrance then SSE across the Hecate Straits/Queen Charlotte Sound, adjusting your course/speed as necessary as conditions warrant, expect:

Fri 23/1800UTC - Sat 24/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-NW 15-20kt, but should freshen/gusty upto 25kts, by Sat/0000UTC
Sea: 4-6ft, chance upto 5-7ft by Sat/0000UTC
Swell: WSW-WNW 4-6ft, longer period. Combined sea/swells 6-8ft.

Sat 24/0000UTC - Sun 25/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-NW 17-25kts, upto 30kts and gusty at times.
Sea: 5-7ft, chance upto 8ft at times.
Swell: W-WNW 4-6ft. Combined W-WNW sea/swells of 8-10ft possible with a period of 8-10sec

Sun 25/0000UTC - Mon 26/0000UTC
Wind: W-NW 15-25kt, upto 30kts and gusty. May start to ease to 15-20kts by Mon/26 0000UTC
Sea: 6-8ft. As the winds ease, seas subside to 5-7ft then 4-6ft.
Swell: WNW-ly 4-6ft. Combined sea/swells of 9-10ft possible, but most likely limited through Sun/1500UTC.

Mon 26/0000UTC - Tue 27/0000UTC (Reaching Dixon by Mon/1400UTC or so)
Wind: Becoming W-Var to NE-ENE 12-20kts to/through the Dixon entrance, then veer ENE-SSE/12-20kts
Sea: 4-6ft, subside to 2-4ft to the Dixon entrance.
Swell: WNW-W 5-7ft. Subside to 4-6ft to the Dixon entrance. Fetch limited in more protected waters. Swells could become more SSW across the southern Hecate Straits area toward Tue/0000UTC.

Tue 27/0000UTC - Wed 28/0000UTC Hecate Straits to Queen Charlotte Straits/Johnstone Straits/Georgia Straits
Wind: ESE-SSW 12-20kt, gusty/25kts at times.
Sea: 2-4ft. However, quickly lowering in more protected waters after entering the Queen Charlotte Straits.
Swell: WSW-SSW 3-5ft. Quickly subsiding in more protected waters after entering the Queen Charlotte Straits.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 21, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1815UTC 21 AUG 2013

Thanks for your updated plans and speed.

The latest available observations in your area and eastward across the Gulf of Alaska indicate westerly winds 10-15kts with westerly sea/swells 2-4ft.

A weak cold front is expected to move across the Aleutian Islands late Wed or early Thur/am as high pressure ridging extends from a high cell centered near 45N 170E ENE-ward toward the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The cold front will be slow to move eastward but also weakens through Thur/night-Fri/morning which will keep the winds more westerly as you travel between the front to the north/west and high ridge to the south.

During Fri/am the front/trough should be close to your location as a new low center develops further north across the northern Gulf of Alaska through Fri/16 and into Sat/17. This will allow for an increasing aft of the beam to following wind/sea pattern that should take you all the way to the Dixon entrance. The low should stall and deepen a bit near 57N 140W during through Sat/night then it should continue to move eastward toward the northern British Columbia coast through Sun/eve-night.

The development of the low center, an eastward moving cold front, with a high pressure ridge to the south will produce an ideal aft of the beam to following wind/sea pattern that will increase to 15-20kts then 20-25kts, gusty/30kts nearing and east of 150W and continue to the Dixon entrance.

From your current location, the rhumbline route to the Dixon entrance then SSE across the Hecate Straits/Queen Charlotte Sound to Vancouver, BC looks good, adjusting your course/speed as necessary as conditions warrant.

Wed 21/1900UTC - Thu 22/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-ly 10-15kts. Could pick upto 15-20kts by late in the period.
Sea: 2-4ft. Upto 5ft possible by late in the period.
Swell: WNW to W 2-3ft.

Thu 22/0000UTC - Fri 23/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging WNW to WSW 15-20kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-6ft.
Swell: Westerly 3-5ft with a lengthening period through Fri/0000UTC

Fri 23/0000UTC - Sat 24/0000UTC
Wind: W-WNW 15-20kt, but should freshen/range closer to WNW-WSW 20-25kts, gusty after Fri/1200UTC and after.
Sea: 4-6ft, build to 5-7ft by/after Fri/1200UTC.
Swell: Westerly 4-6ft, longer period. Combined sea/swells 6-8ft with period of 8-10sec expected by Sat/0000UTC

Sat 24/0000UTC - Sun 25/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-ly 15-25kts, upto 30kts and gusty at times.
Sea: 5-7ft to 6-8ft.
Swell: W-WNW 4-6ft. Combined W-WNW sea/swells of 8-10ft possible with a period of 8-11sec

Sun 25/0000UTC - Mon 26/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-NW 15-25kt, upto 30kts and gusty. May start to ease/back NW-W to WSW 15-20kts by Mon/26 0000UTC
Sea: 6-8ft.
Swell: WNW-ly 6-8ft. Combined sea/swells of 9-12ft expected.

Mon 26/0000UTC - Tue 27/0000UTC (Reaching Dixon entrance during period)
Wind Backing/ease early in the period. W-WSW 15-20kts to the Dixon entrance, then WNW-WSW 08-15kts then 05-12kts to the Hecate Straits through Tue/0000UTC
Sea: Slowly subside tom 6-8ft to 4-6ft entering the Hecate straits as the wind eases. Fetch limited seas of 2-4ft develop by late in the period.
Swell: WNW-W 6-8ft to the Hecate Straits, then steadily subside via the Hecate Straits, W-WSW 5-7ft to 4-6ft through Tue/0000UTC.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 20, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1026UTC 20 AUG 2013

Please advise your departure plans from Dutch Harbor.

The latest available observations indicate WNW-ly winds ranging 15-25kts. The CMAN station to your south in UnaLaska is reporting NW winds 08kt, G/14kts.

The cold front has moved east of the area and is now in the western Gulf of Alaska and weakening. High pressure ridging extends from high pressure near 45N 170W northward across the Aleutian Islands toward 55N. The ridge is expected to move eastward through tonight, but also weaken. This will allow the NW-WNW winds in the area to gradually back as the ridge should pass the Dutch Harbor area between Wed/0000UTC-1200UTC. Thereafter the ridge should weaken as it reaches the western Gulf of Alaska.

A new weather front is expected to move across the Gulf of Alaska through Thur/0000UTC and it should move across the eastern/northern most Aleutian Islands around Thur/1200UTC, then the western/central Gulf of Alaska through Fri/0000UTC. Once the front moves through the Aleutian Islands, the high ridge pattern will attempt to re-establish itself northward across the Aleutian Islands through Fri/1200UTC where it should continue through at least Sat/1200UTC.

Meanwhile, the cold front moving across the Gulf of Alaska by/around Fri/0000UTC will develop an area of low pressure across the northern Gulf of Alaska. This low should move eastward across the eastern Gulf of Alaska (140W) through Sat/0000UTC where it should remain stationary and weaken through Sun/0000UTC

Based on an ETD From Dutch Harbor around Wed/0000UTC expect along the GC/route to Vancouver via Cape Flattery expect

Since you have not advised when you plan to depart Dutch Harbor and your planned speed, we can only make a more general forecast along the suggested route.

Wed 21/0000UTC - Thu 22/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-ly 10-15kts in more protected waters, WNW 15-20kts over exposed waters through Wed 0600UTC, then backing WNW to W 12-20kts through 22/0000UTC.
Sea: Low in protected waters, 3-5ft over more exposed waters.
Swell: WNW to W 2-3ft.

Thu 22/0000UTC - Fri 23/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging WNW to WSW 15-20kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-6ft.
Swell: Westerly 3-5ft with a lengthening period through Fri/0000UTC

Fri 23/0000UTC - Sat 24/0000UTC
Wind: W-WNW 15-20kt, but should freshen/range closer to 20-25kts during the period.
Sea: 4-6ft, upto 7ft possible in the highest winds.
Swell: Westerly 4-6ft, longer period. Combined sea/swells 6-8ft with period of 8-10sec expected by Sat/0000UTC

Sat 24/0000UTC - Sun 25/0000UTC
Wind: WNW-ly 15-25kts.
Sea: 5-7ft.
Swell: W-WNW 4-6ft. Combined W-WNW sea/swells of 7-9ft possible with a period of 8-11sec

Please keep us closely advised of your departure, route plan and cruising speed from Dutch Harbor.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 18, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1735UTC 18 AUG 2013

Please keep us closely advised on your departure plans from Dutch Harbor.

The cold front we have been watching is moving across the eastern Gulf of Alaska and should move through the Dutch Harbor area through/about Tue/0000UTC, then continue to move eastward into the western Gulf of Alaska through Tue/1200UTC, then weakens across the central Gulf of Alaska through Wed/1200UTC. This front should gradually dissipate over the eastern Gulf of Alaska as a new low center forms across the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Tue/1200UTC and moves slowly ENE to the Queen Charlotte Island through Thur/1200UTC.

High pressure extends northward across the Adak Island area toward 60N175W. The ridge should move eastward across the Aleutian Islands including the Dutch Harbor area through Wed/0000UTC, so the fresh WNW-NW winds between the exposed waters of Dutch Harbor toward Unimak Passage will gradually subside and back NW-W-WSW through Wed/1200UTC.

Since the front has not moved through the Dutch Harbor area yet, we suggest you wait until at least Tue/0000UTC before departing (if you are going to depart). IF the risk of lingering WNW-NW winds of 20-25kts, gusty/30kts is something you wish to avoid, then waiting an additional 12-24hrs will allow for easier wind/seas to develop as high pressure moves over the Dutch Harbor area through Wed/0000UTC-1200UTC.

Based on an ETD From Dutch Harbor around Tue/0000UTC expect along the GC/route to Vancouver via Cape Flattery expect

Tue 20 0000UTC - Wed 21/0000UTC
Wind: NW-WNW 15-25kt, gusty 30kts still possible through Tue/1200UTC. Easing to 15-20kts through Wed/0000UTC.
Seas: Low protected waters, building to 3-5ft to 5-7ft exposed waters.
Swells: Low to start, increasing NW-WNW 3-5ft. Combined sea/swells of 7-9ft possible exposed waters and into the western Gulf of Alaska.

Wed 21/0000UTC - Thu 22/0000UTC
Wind: Easing and slowly backing as the ridge moves in from the west. NW-WNW to W-WSW 15-20kts to 12-18kts.
Sea: Subside from 5-7ft to 4-6ft, could be as low as 3-5ft by late in the period.
Swell: WNW to WSW 3-5ft.

Thu 22/0000UTC - Fri 23/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging WNW to WSW 10-16kts.
Sea: 3-5ft, as low as 2-3ft at times.
Swell: WNW-WSW 3-5ft. Could reach upto 6ft and lengthen by late in the period.

If you decide to wait an additional 24hrs for conditions to improve out of Dutch Harbor, expect along the suggested route.

Wed 21/0000UTC - Thu 22/0000UTC
Wind: Easing and slowly backing as the ridge moves in from the west. WNW-WSW 15-20kts to 10-15kts.
Sea: Low in protected waters, 2-4ft maybe 5ft over more exposed waters.
Swell: WNW to W 2-3ft.

Thu 22/0000UTC - Fri 23/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging WNW to WSW 10-18kt, could freshen to 15-20kts at times.
Sea: 3-5ft, as low as 2-3ft closer to the Aleutian Islands early in the period.
Swell: Westerly 3-5ft with a lengthening period through Fri/0000UTC

Fri 23/0000UTC - Sat 24/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging WSW-WNW 12-20kt, but could freshen/range closer to 20-25kts at times.
Sea: 4-6ft, upto 7ft possible in the highest winds.
Swell: Westerly 4-6ft, longer period. Combined sea/swells 6-8ft with period of 9-11sec expected by Sat/0000UTC

Please keep us closely advised of your departure and route plans from Dutch Harbor. Once underway, please advise your planned cruising speed.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNIh


August 17, 2013
To: Captain Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1701UTC 16 AUG 2013

Thanks for advising your departure. See the attached forecast chart valid Aug 19 0000UTC

Observations indicate NW-NNW winds 20-30kts as you near 170W and continuing to Dutch Harbor.

Low pressure has finally moved across the western Gulf of Alaska and will continue across the central/northern Gulf of Alaska through Sun/1200UTC then weakens across the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Mon/1200UTC.

High pressure to the south of the Aleutians near 47N 180E extends NW-WNW across the western Aleutian Islands. This high will tend to stay stationary over the next 24-48hrs. The high to the west/north will help maintain the NW-ly flow to Dutch Harbor, but the pressure gradient should continue to range 20-30kts through arrival.

Along the direct route to Dutch Harbor, expect

Sat 17/1800UTC - Sun 18/0000UTC
Wind: NW-ly 20-30kt, gusty at times.
Seas: Building as the winds increase, 4-6ft to as much as 7-8ft through Sun/0000UTC
Swells: NNW to WNW 3-5ft, upto 6ft at times.

Sun 18 0000UTC - Sun 18/1800UTC (arrival by late in the period)
Wind: NW-ly 20-30kts, could ease closer to 20-25kts if arriving closer to Sun/1800UTC.
Seas: Ranging 5-8ft. Highest if you arrive prior to Sun/1200UTC.
Swells: WNW-W 3-5ft.

Please advise how long you plan to stop in Dutch Harbor.

Looking at the pattern from Dutch Harbor, high pressure to the south will continue to dominate the eastern Bering Sea and western/central Gulf of Alaska and this will maintain a mostly NW-W wind/sea pattern from Dutch Harbor eastward across the Gulf of Alaska through Aug 21-23.

Because of this pattern, we would suggest from Dutch Harbor, the GC route to Cape Cape Flattery, shortest route Vancouver. This will keep the winds mostly aft of the beam to following across the Gulf of Alaska. At this point we would expect winds as low as 10-15kts, but most likely will range 15-25kts with WSW to WNW sea/swells 6-10ft.

Ext/outlooks indicate the ridge pattern will dominate and weaken allowing for easier WSW-WNW to NW winds of 10-20kts and W-NW sea/swells 5-8ft into Aug 24-25

We will provide our more details forecast based on your departure plans from Dutch Harbor. Also advise your planned speed across the Gulf of Alaska to Cape Flattery.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 16, 2013
To: Captain Jim - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1826UTC 16 AUG 2013

Please find attached the forecast chart valid for Aug 18/1200UTC

The latest observations indicate the low center that has dominated the central and eastern Aleutian Islands is now near Dutch Harbor. High pressure is beginning to extend NW into the western Bering Sea. Over the next 48hrs, the low center should move across the western Gulf of Alaska to east of Kodiak Island through Sun/1200UTC, then weaken across the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Mon/1200UTC before dissipating through Tue/1200UTC.

The high pressure ridge to your west will be slow to move eastward, but should do so and is expected to extend NNW across 180E (just west of Adak Island) through Sun/1200UTC then should move slowly eastward across Adak Island through Mon/1200UTC.

We are watching a new weather front to move east/south across the northern Bering Sea between Sun/1200UTC-Mon/0000UTC. This front should work its way across the Dutch Harbor area between Mon/1200UTC-1800UTC then continue eastward into the western Gulf of Alaska through Tue/1200UTC. The approaching/passing cold front will allow for increasing W-NW wind/seas to develop while enroute toward Dutch Harbor if you leave around Sun/0000UTC toward Dutch Harbor.

The ridge that extends northward across the Gulf of Alaska during Mon/0000UTC-1200UTC should gradually weaken as it moves across Dutch Harbor through Wed/0000UTC and east of the Aleutian Islands through Wed/1200UTC. This should continue to allow for a fresh aft of the beam to following wind/sea pattern to Dutch Harbor as well as eastward across the Gulf of Alaska through Wed/21-Fri/23.

Based on your current location Adak Island and your waiting for improved conditions, we do suggest you wait until Sun/0000UTC before departing. Conditions will ease in/around Adak. However, the cold front will bring increasing W-NW winds to the Dutch Harbor area after Mon/0000UTC and could freshen to as much as 30kt and gusty nearing Dutch Harbor through Tue/0000UTC.

If the risk of experiencing at least 30kts of wind from the W-NW prior to Dutch Harbo is too high for you, then you may wish to wait to leave Adak Island by/around Tue/0000UTC then continue direct Dutch Harbor as the next high pressure ridge pattern has more of an influence with winds closer to 10-15kts from Adak to Dutch Harbor.

For now, considering an ETD Sun/0000UTC bound toward Dutch Harbor, expect

Sun 18/0000UTC - Mon 19/0000UTC
Wind: NW-ly 15-20kt, gusty at times. Winds could back NW-WNW 15-20kt, gusty through Mon/0000UTC
Seas: Ranging 4-6ft, upto 7ft at times.
Swells: Slowly improve NNE to NW 6-8ft through Sun/0900UTC, then NW-WNW 6-8ft through Mon/0000UTC

Mon 19 0000UTC - Tue 20/0000UTC (arrival by late in the period)
Wind: Freshen WSW-W 17-25kt, gusty as the front nears through about Mon/1200UTC, then veers WSW to NW 20-30kt, gusty to arrival Dutch Harbor through Tue 20/0000UTC (through arrival).
Seas: 4-6ft to start, could increase 6-8ft, occ 9-10ft in gusty winds through arrival
Swells: WNW-NW 6-8ft to arrival. Combined 11ft sea/swells possible through arrival.

Please advise your ETD plans from Adak, if you still plan to stop at Dutch Harbor or will continue onward to Vancouver from Adak Island. If you plan to stop at Dutch Harbor, advise how long you plan to stay at Dutch Harbor.

Watching/updating, B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 15, 2013
To: Captain Jim - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1733UTC 15 AUG 2013

Please find attached the forecast chart valid for Aug 17/0000UTC

There is no major change in the pattern. Low pressure continues to your north, but over the next 24-48hrs, the low is expected to begin moving eastward passing the Dutch Harbor area by Fri/1200UTC then continuing eastward to the western Gulf of Alaska through Sat/1200UTC. The low is expected to stall east of Kodiak Island through Sun/1200UTC while high pressure ridging extends NNW-NW across the western and central Bering Sea.

By Mon/1200UTC the low center should weaken as it moves across the more central and eastern Gulf of Alaska while the high pressure ridge extends north across the central Bering Sea. High pressure ridging will dominate the waters between Adak and Dutch Harbor during Sun/Mon which will allow conditions to remain mostly NW-W from departure through arrival Dutch Harbor.

The longer you stay at Adak Island, the better the wind/sea conditions will improve. However, there is an opportunity to continue onward from Adak/Dutch Harbor eastward across the Gulf of Alaska toward Vancouver as high pressure tends to stay stationary south of the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska. This should keep the winds more aft of the beam to following during the coming week and into next weekend with winds generally 15-25kts and WSW-WNW 5-8ft.

Based on your current location Adak Island and your waiting for improved conditions, we do suggest you wait until Sun/0000UTC before departing. Conditions will ease in/around Adak, but will slowly improve (pressure gradient weakens) through Mon/1200UTC (through arrival Dutch Harbor). Winds will remain at least 15-20kts from a more aft of the beam direction. Northerly swells at the outset would tend to become more NW-W as the low pulls away and high pressure has more influence.

For now, considering an ETD Sun/0000UTC bound toward Dutch Harbor, expect

Sun 18/0000UTC - Mon 19/0000UTC
Wind: NW-ly 15-20kt, gusty at times. Winds could back NW-WNW 15-20kt, gusty through Mon/0000UTC
Seas: Ranging 4-6ft, upto 7ft at times.
Swells: Slowly improve NNE to NW 6-8ft through Sun/0900UTC, then NW-WNW 5-7ft through Mon/0000UTC

Mon 19 0000UTC - Mon 19/1800UTC (arrival by late in the period)
Wind: WNW-W 15-20kt, gusty through arrival.
Seas: 4-6ft to start, could subside to 3-5ft through arrival.
Swells: WNW-W 5-7ft early on, subside to 4-6ft through arrival.

Please advise your ETD plans from Adak, if you still plan to stop at Dutch Harbor or will continue onward to Vancouver from Adak Island. If you plan to stop at Dutch Harbor, advise how long you plan to stay at Dutch Harbor.

Watching, updating. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 11, 2013
To: Captain Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com 1-302-284-3268
1825UTC 11 AUG 2013

Please see the attached forecast chart valid for Aug 13 1200UTC.

The latest surface observations indicate ESE-SE winds 10-20kts in your area.

Low pressure is near 48N 172E and expected to move NE to 51N 180E through Mon/1200UTC. Thereafter the low moves to/near 54N 179W through Tue/1200UTC where it should remain through arrival. The weather front associated with the low extends east/then/south and is south of the Aleutian Islands. As the low moves NE the weather front will also move NE toward Dutch Harbor. This front is not expected to cross your location/Dutch Harbor prior to arrival, so the mostly E-SE winds with occ ENE winds are expected to prevail through arrival. If the winds have not reached upto 20-25kt, they will reach those levels over the next 6-12hrs. 20-25kts will likely be the lowest wind speeds you'll experience for the remainder of the voyage.

For now, based on your current position, the shortest route to Dutch Harbor adjusting for the best ride by staying closer to the Aleutian Islands is best. This will help reduce the sea heights while the winds remain at least 20-30kt through arrival, expect:

Sun 11/1900UTC - Mon 12/0000UTC
Wind: E-ESE, occ ENE 15-20kt, but increasing to 20-25kts, gusty through Mon/0000UTC.
Sea: 2-4ft, could build to 4-6ft through the period as the winds increase over more exposed waters.
Swells: Generally confused 2-4ft, but could be slighlty higher late over more exposed waters.

Mon 12/0000UTC - Tue 13/0000UTC
Wind: Continues mostly E-ESE but ENE is possible at times. Wind speeds at least 22-30kt, but could reach as high as 35-40kt at times.
Seas: As low as 3-5ft, but could reach 6-10ft over exposed waters.
Swells: ESE to SW 2-4ft exposed waters.

Tue 13 0000UTC - Wed 14/0000UTC (arrival by late in the period)
Wind: E-ESE 25-33kt, occ 35-40kt and gusty through arrival.
Seas: ranging 5-8ft, chance upto 9-10ft prior to arrival over exposed waters.
Swells: ESE to SW 2-4ft as the area is somewhat protected prior to arrival.

Looking at the voyage from Dutch Harbor to Vancouver

The weather front should move through the Dutch Harbor area by/about Wed/0000UTC while the low center tends to move eastward across 55N 175W through Wed/1200UTC. Data now indicates the low center will move across 56N 170W through Thu/1200UTC, but it should also weaken during this time. The low may not even move east of Dutch Harbor until as late as Fri/1200UTC.

Once the low moves east of the Dutch Harbor is should move into the western Gulf of Alaska through Sat/1200UTC then weaken through Sun/Mon. At the same time, high pressure should begin to ridge northward into the western/central Bering Sea. This high should remain nearly stationary through Mon 19/0000UTC before it begins to move eastward through Mon 19/1200UTC.

With the low pressure pattern weakening slowly across the western, then central Gulf of Alaska and high pressure expected to dominate the waters over the western/eastern Bering Sea as well as the south/central western Gulf of Alaska through Mon/19-Tue/20, the direct route from Dutch Harbor to Vancouver via the Great Circle looks to be the best option. This should keep the winds mostly SW to NW across the Gulf of Alaska and closer to the expected high ridge pattern during Aug 22-24.

We would suggest you wait at least 24hrs and maybe as long as 72hrs before leaving Dutch Harbor, in order to allow the at least weaken and move east of Dutch Harbor. This way you should be able to start off and maintain a mostly aft of the beam wind/sea pattern through arrival Vancouver.

Please keep us advised of your position/weather/speed through arrival as well as how long you plan to remain in Dutch Harbor. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 10, 2013
To: Captain Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1000UTC 10 AUG 2013

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_48hrbw.gif

Please find the latest forecast chart link above.

No big changes in the pattern since our last update. We do note a broad low center across the NE-E Bering Sea is helping to produce some lingering N-NW swells across the southern Bering Sea area (north of the Aleutians). These swells should subside as the low weakens over the next 12-24hrs and high pressure near your location moves eastward.

A low pressure area to the south/west continues to be the main focus. The low is near 44N 165E and moving toward the ENE. The low should reach south of the Aleutian Islands near 47N 180E between Mon/1200UTC-1800UTC, then tends to move slowly NE then N through Wed/0000UTC across the central Bering Sea. The main center of low is not expected to pass close to Dutch Harbor. However, it broad circulation is what we expected to bring increasing wind/seas to your transit.

The associated warm front trailing to the ESE-SE will approach your track and the Dutch Harbor area from the south/west. The broad circulation around the low center will bring the increasing ENE-ESE wind/seas to your location beginning by/around Mon/0000UTC and that will continue until your arrival Dutch Harbor. Fortunately, it does the appear once the low begins to move more northward north of the Aleutian Islands toward the south central Bering Sea, the low should begin to ease after Tue/1200UTC, which should be prior to your arrival.

Expect increasing ENE-ESE winds to reach the 20-30kt range with combined sea/swells 6-10ft. The Aleutian Islands will provide some protection. You can also travel closer to the Aleutian Islands and that will also help provide some protection from the increased wind/sea conditions.

The suggested route direct to Attu/Buldir then direct to Dutch Harbor, adjusting your course speed as necessary for the best ride remains valid. You can increase your speed as conditions allow in order to improve your ETA at Dutch Harbor. This would tend to shorten the time you are exposed to increased ENE-ESE winds as the warm front gets closer.

Expect:

Sat 10/1100UTC - Sun 11/0000UTC
Wind: Tending to Back WNW-SW to even ESE through the period;10-18kts, but as low as 05-10kts with patchy fog also possible.
Sea:3-5ft, but as low as 1-3ft in the lighest wids.
Swell: Subsiding NNE to NNW 4-6ft to N-confused 3-4ft by late in the period.

Sun 11/0000UTC - Mon 12/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging ESE-ENE 10-18kts, but gradually freshen to 18-25kts through Mon/0000UTC
Sea: 2-4ft to start, but increase to 4-6ft even upto 7ft possible by Mon/0000UTC
Swell: Confused to ESE 2-4ft exposed waters.

Mon 12/0000UTC Tue 13/0000UTC
Wind: Ranging ESE-ENE 22-30kt, gusty at times.
Sea: Building as the winds increase across more exposed waters of the southern Bering Sea, 6-9ft. Could reach upto 10ft at times.
Swell: Depending on your exposure across the southern Bering Sea region, ESE to SW 3-5ft, but a confused direction swell also possibe. Combined sea/swells of 11-12ft arepossible during the highest winds through the period.

Tue 13/0000UTC - Tue 13/2100UTC (arrival Dutch Harbor during period.)
Wind: Wind direction continues to remain ESE-ENE. We expect you'll remain north of the warm front, but should the front actually move to your north prior to arrival, then the ESE winds would tend to become more SW-WSW. Winds speeds should ease prior to arrival, but stay in the 20-30kt, gusty/range. However winds may ease a bit closer to 20kts within 6-9hrs of arrival.
Seas: 6-8ft, upto 9-10ft very possible early on. Seas should ease a bit as you get closer to Dutch Harbor.
Swell: Tending to subside the closer to Dutch Harbor you get, 4-6ft early, but 2-4ft throgh arrival. Swells direction ESE-WSW (mixed)

We will continue to monitor the pattern and keep you updated. Please advise how long you expect to reamin in Dutch Harbor when known so we can plan for a departure and route recommendation to Vancover. B/Rgds Bob/OMNI


August 9, 2013

To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1016UTC 09 Aug 2013

Thanks for your last position report. Keep them coming. They are very helpful.

Currently high pressure continues to dominate near Attu Island and should continue to do so for the next 12-15hrs, then should begin to move eastward following close to the Aleutian Islands then accelerating toward the east and the south. The high will keep the winds light and continue the risk of fog for at least another 24hrs or so.

Low pressure to your south near 42N 156E is expected to gain strength over the next 24hrs, but the latest data suggests the low will continue to take a more eastward to ENE track rather than toward the NE.This will keep the low south of you passing 45N 175E through Mon/0000UTC
then across 47N 165W through Tue/0000UTC. Thereafter the low should continue eastward across 46N 150W through Wed/0000UTC.

As the low passes south of the Aleutian Islands, lingering high pressure ridging is expected to extend NW across the central and eastern Aleutian Islands through Mon/0000UTC and this should allow for the a new high to move southward across the eastern Bering Sea through Mon/1200UTC-Tue/0000UTC then tends to become stationary north of the Dutch Harbor area (eastern Bering Sea) through Wed/1200UTC-Thur/0000UTC.

The suggested route direct to Attu then direct to Dutch Harbor remains valid, still with the option of adjusting your course as necessary for the best ride. However, if the low center stays as far south as it is expected, you may find it hard to expereince winds above 15-20kts.

Expect:

Fri 09/1200UTC - Sat 10/0000UTC
Wind: Variable tto NNE-NW 05-15kts. Some patchy fog is still possible.
Sea: 2-3ft.
Swell: Confused 2-4ft.

Sat 10/0000UTC - Sun 11/0000UTC
Wind: Tending to back N-NW to W-SW while also being variable at times through the period. Still the chance of patchy fog while the light winds persist.
Sea: 2-3ft.
Swell: Confused to SE-ESE 2-4ft

Sun 11/0000UTC - Mon 12/0000UTC
Wind: SW-SE to ESE 05-15kt
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: SE-ESE 2-4ft (exposed waters)

Mon 12/0000UTC Tue 13/0000UTC
Wind: SE-ESE, tending more ENE-NE 05-15kts
Sea: 2-3ft
Swell: ESE-Confused 2-4ft tending confused/low by Mon/1200UTC

Tue 13/0000UTC - Wed 14/0000UTC (arrival Dutch Harbor during period.)
Wind: NE-NNW to Variable 05-15kts
Seas: 2-3ft
Swell: Low.

We will continue to monitor the pattern and keep you updated. B/Rgds Bob/OMNI


August 8, 2013

To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1715UTC 08 AUG 2013

Please send your daily noon position reports and weather/info daily until Dutch Harbor

See the attached chart for the latest surface analysis as well as the forecast chart valid at 10/0000UTC. Very weak high pressure is just to your north. Observations in the area indicate light W-SW winds of 10-15kts

The low that is just to your north should remain very weak through the coming 12-18hrs and should dissipate by Fri/1200UTC. Once it does, you will be under the influence of high pressure as you approach/reach Attu Island. The high is still expected to move quickly eastward passing the central Aleutian Islands by Sat/1200UTC then moving ESE-SE (south of Dutch Harbor) through Sun/1200UTC, then it should weaken.

We continue to watch the developing low pressure well to your south/west. There still seems to be some question on the track of the system. In fact the intensity of this low seems more definitive. It's the track that still is changing slightly with each model run. There does seem to be a tend to take the low more ENE rather than NE during Fri-Tue. This would be a more favorable wind/sea scenario for the Nordhavn 120 as remaining north of the Aleutian Islands should limit sea/swell heights until approaching Dutch Harbor. You would also remain further north/west of the low center passes south of Dutch Harbor through Tue/1200UTC. As of now, the low center should continue to move more eastward and stay well south of Dutch Harbor. There is still chance we could see a slight adjustment in the model data during the next 2-3 days where the low center takes a track closer to Dutch Harbor. However, if this were to occur, we would the conditions to be no worse (and likely better) than the conditions you encountered off Japan between 35N-40N.

Therefore, we continue to suggest the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands, (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor north of the Aleutian Islands, adjusting your ride as necessary east of 180E as E-SE to NE winds tend to increase toward Dutch Harbor.

Expect along the suggested route:

Thu 08/0000UTC - Fri 09/0000UTC
Wind: Continued WSW-SSW; 08-15kts. Continued risk of Fog
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Mixed NE & S 3-5ft.

Fri 09/0000UTC - Sat 10/0000UTC
Wind: Tending to shift during this period, SSW-WSW to NNE-ENE 10-16kts as you move north of the weak trough/front. Winds could be as low as 05-10kts by late in the period. Still the continued risk of fog.
Sea: 2-4ft, as low as 1-2ft at times near the high center.
Swell: Mixed to more NE-N 4-6ft developing the closer to Attu you travel.

Sat 10/0000UTC - Sun/11 0000UTC
Wind: Ranging NE-ESE to SSW 05-15kts. Light/Variable at times as the high cell moves over your transit.
Sea: 2-3ft.
Swell: Gradually subsiding NNE-NNW from 4-6ft to 3-4ft late.

Sun 11/0000UTC - Mon 12/0000UTC
Wind: Variable to ESE-SSE to SSW 05-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Become confused to SE 3-5ft.

Mon 12/0000UTC - Tue 13/0000UTC
Wind: Tending variable to ESE-ENE 10-18kts, could freshen to 20-22kts by Tue/0000UTC.
Sea: 2-4ft, upto 5ft possible by late in the period.
Swell: Confused to SE-E 3-5ft.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 7, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1601UTC 07 AUG 2013

Thanks for your updated 07/position report and info.

See the attached chart for the latest surface analysis. High pressure continues to extend NW across the area with weak surface trough/weak low centers across the. The combination of all these weak systems is keeping the wind/sea pattern on the light side. The ridge is expected to push its way toward the north/east toward or just south of Attu Island and should keep the winds light and even from a more variable direction through Fri/0000UTC

The weather front to the north that lays westward across the NW Pacific toward the western-central Aleutian Islands will remain stationary through Fri/1200UTC before weakening. North of the front we still expect a weaker high pressure pattern to develop and lingering over the western Aleutian Islands through Fri/1200UTC then begin to drift eastward to 180E through Sat/1200UTC.

Now, this is where the pattern gets tricky. The latest data suggests the developing gale low center near 40N 156E at 09/0000UTC (see the attached forecast chart), may be blocked by the high cell moving east across the Aleutians. This will give the low center the opportunity to merge with a developing/stalled frontal system that lays westward along 42N from 170W westward to/about 150E.

Outlook data suggests the high pressure ridge will tend to persist and drift southward of the Aleutian to an area near 50N 165W through Sat/0000UTC where it then tends to move eastward through Mon/1200UTC. At this time, the low center along the stalled front west of the high ridge would then track ENE-ward and pass well south of the Aleutian Islands.

Even with this apparent change in the forecast of the low/high pressure systems, the suggested route will remain the same, by passing the Attu-Buldir range then continue to move eastward toward Dutch Harbor through arrival. There may still be the development of increasing E-SE winds with the high ridge to the east and low pressure passing to your south, but the Aleutian Islands will block some of that activity. In addition, the wind/strength would tend to stay closer to the 10-20kt range versus 20-25kt and higher with the low passing further south. We will continue to monitor this pattern closely and keep you well advised of the expected development and movement of this low center.

We continue to suggest the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands, (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor north of the Aleutian Islands, adjusting your ride as necessary east of 180E as E-SE winds tend to increase toward Dutch Harbor.

Expect along the suggested route:

Wed 07/1800UTC - Thu 08/0000UTC
Wind: Variable to NNW-W 10-18kt, but WSW-SW is possible at times. Continued risk of fog.
Sea: 3-4ft
Swell: Mixed (NE & S) 3-5ft, 7-10sec.

Thu 08/0000UTC - Fri 09/0000UTC
Wind: Continued WSW-SSW; 08-15kts. Continued risk of Fog
Sea: 3-4ft
Swell: Mixed NE & S 3-5ft.

Fri 09/0000UTC - Sat 10/0000UTC
Wind: Tending to shift during this period, SSW-WSW to NNE-ENE 10-16kts as you move north of the weak trough/front. Still the continued risk of fog.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: Mixed to more NE-N 4-6ft developing the closer to Attu you travel.

Sat 10/0000UTC - Sun/11 0000UTC
Wind: Ranging NE-ESE to SSW 05-15kts. Light/Variable at times as the high cell moves over your transit.
Sea: 2-3ft.
Swell: Gradually subsiding NNE-NNW from 4-6ft to 3-4ft late.

Sun 11/0000UTC - Mon 12/0000UTC
Wind: Variable to ESE-SSE to SSW 05-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Become confused to SE 2-4ft.

We will need to watch this pattern to see if the low center does develop and tracks toward the north/east to the Bering Sea or more toward the east and south and south of the Aleutian Islands. Either way, the suggested route continues to suggest a route via Attu/Buldir and north of the Aleutian Islands to Dutch Harbor.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI



August 6, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1823UTC 06 AUG 2013

Thanks for your updated noon position report and info. PLEASE continue to send this information daily until arrival Dutch Harbor.

Observations indicate (see the attached surface analysis) the low pressure area continues to remain weak. High pressure just west of the low is having more of an influence on the wind/sea conditions in your area with N-NW winds 10-15kts and seas 2-4ft. This trend should continue the next 48hrs or so as the ridge tends to persist and you tend to move north of it through Thur/1200UTC. You will notice the winds gradually backing from the N-NW to W-SW as you move north of the high ridge and closer to a weak weather front that is expected to lay west/east south of the Aleutian Islands through Fri/1200UTC.

The front will be weak and you should move through it by/about Fri/1200UTC enroute to Attu. North of the weak front we expect a new area of high pressure to move from the western Bering Sea at Fri/1200UTC to near Attu at Sat/1200UTC then continues to move eastward just north of the Aleutian Islands reaching Dutch Harbor by Mon/1200UTC.

By Fri/1200UTC, a new low center is expected to develop well to your south/west near 40N 156E. This low was expected to move ENE-NE. However, it now appears the low will move slowly toward the north/east reaching 45N 162E by Sat/1200UTC and near the Attu Island area by Mon/1200UTC. A warm front will also extend ESE-E from the low and it should stay south of the Aleutian Islands through Mon/1500UTC. Thereafter the low and warm front will move north/east across the western/central Aleutian Islands through Tue/13 0000UTC.

The low is expected to reach Gale force near 57N 176E by Tue/13 1200UTC while the associated warm front tends to move north/east toward Dutch Harbor. However, as of now, we don't expect the front to cross Dutch Harbor prior to Tue/1800UTC. As the front approaches the south/central Bering Sea/Dutch Harbor increasing E-SE winds are expected to develop from/about 180E east toward Dutch Harbor, or from approx Mon/0000UTC-Wed/0300UTC. The Aleutian Islands will provide some protection from these increasing winds, so remaining NORTH of the Aleutian Islands is better than passing south of them. Even when the front does move through Dutch Harbor while you are within/about 24hrs of Dutch Harbor, the front should weaken by then and shifting SE-SW to WSW winds will develop (a more aft of the beam wind/sea pattern) to arrival.

We continue to suggest the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands, (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor north of the Aleutian Islands, adjusting your ride as necessary east of 180E as E-SE winds tend to increase toward Dutch (maybe after passing Attu Island, you should increase your speed a bit in order to get further east and reduce your time in expected/increasing E-SE winds).

Expect along the suggested route:

Tue 06/1830UTC - Wed 07/0000UTC
Wind: NNW-WNW 10-16kts by late in the period.
Sea: 2-3ft
Swell: Mixed 3-4ft. 7-9sec.

Wed 07/0000UTC - Thu 08/0000UTC
Wind: Mostly WNW-W 10-18kt, but occ WSW-SW at times.
Sea: 3-4ft
Swell: Mixed to Southerly 3-5ft, 7-10sec.

Thu 08/0000UTC - Fri 09/0000UTC
Wind: Continued WSW-SSW; 10-18kts.
Sea: 3-4ft
Swell: Southerly 3-5ft.

Fri 09/0000UTC - Sat 10/0000UTC
Wind: Tending to Shift during this period, SSW-WSW to NNE-ENE 10-18kts.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: Southerly to confused; 3-5ft. However, northerly 4-6ft developing nearing/after passing Attu.

Sat 10/0000UTC - Sun/11 0000UTC
Wind: NE to WNW 05-15kts. Light/Variable at times as the high cell moves over your transit.
Sea: 2-3ft.
Swell: Gradually subsiding NNE-NNW from 4-6ft to 3-4ft late.

Sun 11/0000UTC - Mon 12/0000UTC
Wind: Variable to E-SE 05-15kts through Sun/1200UTC, increasing to 15-20kts through Mon/0000UTC
Sea: 2-4ft, increasing to 5ft by late in the period.
Swell: Become confused to ESE 2-4ft.

Once again, passing north of the Aleutian Islands should provide you with an overall better ride and will help in reducing sea/swell heights enroute to Dutch Harbor over the last 48hrs or so. Passing south of the Aleutian Island would tend to produce E-SE to SW winds of 20-30kt, gusty with increasing sea/swells 6-12ft.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI



August 5, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1735UTC 05 AUG 2013

Please advise your noon position, weather and speed while enroute until arrival Vancouver.

Available observations near your location also place you near the weak low center that has been helping produce the gradually subsiding conditions east of Japan. Obs show NNW winds 25kts. The broad low appears to be centered near 44N 162E and should continue to weaken and slowly weaken through Wed/07.

By Wed/1200UTC high pressure ridging is expected to extend NW toward the Kuril Islands and it should remain unchanged through Thur/1200UTC. The ridge should move northward toward the SW Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands as a new low center attempts to forms near 40N 156E by Fri/1200UTC. It does appear the low will track more E-ENE moving across 44N 175E while high pressure ridging lays west/east across the Aleutian Islands during Sun/1200Z-Mon/12-1200UTC

The temporary freshening of the winds will be just that, temporary as the low center should move more eastward and weakens further through Wed/1200UTC and Thur/0000UTC. The development of the high ridge should allow for a lighter wind/sea pattern to develop and prevail until reaching Attu Island. The low center that forms to your south will tend to stay to your south and should not impact your transit.

We continue to suggest as best cruising speed (as able), the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands, (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor.

Expect along the suggested route:

Mon 05/1800UTC - Tue 06/0000UTC
Wind: N-NW 15-21kt, gusty/25kts possible through the period.
Sea: 5-7ft, however upto 7-8ft possible through the period.
Swell: Mixed, 4-6ft 6-9sec. Combined seas of 9-10ft possible during the highest winds.

Tue 06/0000UTC - Wed 07/0000UTC
Wind: Range NW-WNW, 15-20kts early, tend to subside to 10-16kts by late in the period.
Sea: 5-7ft early, ease to 4-6ft then 3-5ft through Wed/0000UTC
Swell: Mixed 4-6ft. 7-9sec. Combined sea/swells to 7-8ft still possible through the period.

Wed 07/0000UTC - Thu 08/0000UTC
Wind: Mostly WNW-W 10-18kt, but occ WSW-SW at times.
Sea: 3-5ft to as low as 3-4ft after Wed/1200UTC
Swell: Mixed to Southerly 3-5ft, 7-10sec.

Thu 08/0000UTC - Fri 09/0000UTC
Wind: Continued WNW-SSW to variable at times; 10-18kts.
Sea: 3-4ft
Swell: Confused to S 4-6ft.

Fri 09/0000UTC - Sat 10/0000UTC (nearing/passing Attu Island by late in the period)
Wind: WNW-W to Variable 05-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: Confused to S-SE 3-5ft.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 4, 2013
Available observations near your location indicate N-NE winds of 10-18kts. We note the last reported position on the website was around Sat/2138UTC. 

Low pressure to your east/north continues to weaken as it moves slowly east north. The low is expected to move across 44N 160E by Mon/1200UTC then should begin to gradually weaken through Wed/0000UTC. As the low moves eastward and weakens, weak high pressure ridging is expected east of the Kuril Islands through Wed/1200UTC. This high ridge should gradually merge with a broader/stronger high cell to the east/south centered near 35N 175W during Wed/1200UTC-Fri/0000UTC. The ridging should continue to prevail along/near your track toward Attu Island through Thu/1200UTC before weakening. 

North of this ridge, a somewhat complex, but weak frontal system is expected to develop from a weak low center across the western Bering Sea ESE across the western Aleutian Islands eastward through Fri/1200UTC. The front should remain nearly stalled as the low center moves E-ESE along the front to 54N 180E through Sat/0000UTC.  

It is not that clear as to what happens with the low when it crosses 180E. It could stall west of the Dutch Harbor area and remain weak while slowly dissipating through Aug 10-12. However, the low could continue to move toward or just north of Dutch Harbor and deepen a bit. If that is the case, increasing W-NW wind/seas of 20-30kts and Sea/swells of 8-12ft (occ higher) could develop enroute to Dutch Harbor from east of Attu Island.  We will keep a close watch on the pattern ahead of you in our daily updates. 

We continue to suggest as best able, the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands, (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor at an increased forward speed in order to reach the Aleutian Islands while the most favorable wind/sea conditions prevail.  

Expect along the suggested route: 

Sun 04/1800UTC - Mon 05/0000UTC 
Wind: Mostly NW-N 10-18kts, upto 20-22kts possible at times. 
Sea: 3-5ft,  5-8sec
Swell:  NE-ENE to 6-8ft, 8-11sec. Chance swells more NE rather than ENE

Mon 05/0000UTC - Tue 06/0000UTC  
Wind: Range NW-SW(Variable at times) 08-15kts.   
Sea: 2-4ft. 
Swell: ENE to SE subside from 6-8ft early to 5-7ft then 4-6ft by late in the period,  8-11sec

Tue 06/0000UTC - Wed 07/0000UTC
Wind:  Range WNW-SSW 08-15kts.  Chance more variable to SSW-ESE at times; 05-12kts. 
Sea:  2-4ft
Swell: Mixed ESE to SSW 4-6ft.   8-10sec

Wed 07/0000UTC - Thu 08/0000UTC
Wind:  WNW-SW 10-18kt, variable at times.  
Sea:  3-4ft.
Swell: Becoming predominantly from the SE-S 4-6ft.

Thu 08/0000UTC - Fri 09/0000UTC
Wind: Continued WNW-SSW to variable at times; 10-18kts. 
Sea:  3-4ft
Swell: SE-S 4-6ft. 

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival.   B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 3, 2013
To: Captain Jim - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1726UTC 03 AUG 2013

Glad to see the conditions have eased for everyone onboard and sooner than expected. Please let me know at what speed you are traveling at now.

Available observations indicate a ship near 40.4N 153.3E reports WNW winds 27kts with seas 5sec/3.5mtrs and swells NNE 3.0mtrs(at 7sec). Another vessel near 44.3N 151.3E reports North/24kt, Seas 2.5mtrs at 05sec and swells (no direction) at 3.5mtrs.

Low pressure to your east/north continues to weaken while moving slowly ENE-ward. The low is expected near 45N 160E (1000mb) at 04/1200UTC, then 46N 162E (1007mb) during 05/1200UTC, then gradually begins to weaken and could dissipate through 06/1200UTC

As the low continues to move ENE and weaken, high pressure ridging will gradually fill in to the south/west of the low. The main high cell is stationary near 32N 180E and ridging will gradually extend WWN toward the southern Kuril Islands through Tue/1200UTC. By Wed/1200UTC, a new/weaker high cell may actually develop within this ridge near 40N 162E by Thur/0000UTC. However this ridge won't last too long as a new weather front is expected to stretch from the northern Kuril Islands at 50N eastward to south of the Aleutian Islands at 180E during Thur/1200UTC.

The front will be associated with a broad/weak low that develops across the northern Aleutian Islands near 52N 175W at Thur/1200UTC. The low should deepen a bit as it moves across Dutch Harbor and the weak front moves south across your track. It is not clear as to when the front will move across, but if/when it does, it should be weak and it won't have alot of weather/wind with it. On the north side of the front, a new area of high pressure is expected to move in across the NW Pacific Ocean-western Bering Sea area with the main high center just south of the Aleutian Islands through Sat/10-1200UTC.

Overall, you should have some fairly good conditions to travel in during the forecast period. Ext/outlooks indicate the low near Dutch Harbor will weaken and slowly exit through Aug 10-12. High pressure should continue to dominate in to the week, but a new low pressure area may approach from the south/west and could pass south of Dutch Harbor during Aug 13th.

Now that conditions have improved we suggest the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor at an increased forward speed (9-10kt) as able, in order to reach the Aleutian Islands while the most favorable wind/sea conditions prevail.

Expect along the suggested route:

Sat 03/1800UTC - Sun 04/0000UTC
Wind: NW-WNW 12-18kts through Sun/0000UTC
Sea: 4-6ft then 3-5ft as the winds ease, 5-7sec.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, upto 9-10ft still possible through Sun/0000UTC. 7-10sec.

Sun 04/0000UTC - Mon 05/0000UTC (increasing your cruising speed by now (if not done already) would be best)
Wind: Mostly NW-WNW 10-18kts, to as low as 05-10kts during period. Wind direction could vary at times.
Sea: 3-4ft, 5-8sec
Swell: Slowly subsiding ENE-E to 6-8ft by Sun/0900UTC, then 5-7ft through Mon/0000UTC. 8-11sec.

Mon 05/0000UTC - Tue 06/0000UTC (sailing at an increased cruising speed, direct toward Attu)
Wind: Range NW-SW(Variable at times) 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: ENE to ESE 4-6ft. 8-11sec

Tue 06/0000UTC - Wed 07/0000UTC
Wind: Range WNW-SSW 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Mixed ESE to SSW 4-6ft. 8-10sec

Wed 07/0000UTC - Thu 08/0000UTC
Wind: WSW-SW 10-18kt.
Sea: 3-4ft, chance upto 5ft late in the period.
Swell: Becoming predominantly from the SSW 4-6ft, combined sea/swells could beach 7-8ft by Thur/0000UTC, 8-10sec.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 2, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1700UTC 02 AUG 2013

Available observations indicate NNW-NNE winds ranging 15-25kts from off of northern Japan toward Hokkaido.

Low pressure is starting to move slowly away from the coast and expected to move to 43N 155E (994mb) at 03/1200UTC, 45N 159E (1000mb) at 04/1200UTC and then stalls near 46N 161E (1007mb) during 05/1200UTC through at least 06/1200UTC.

About 24hrs or so from by (between Sat/1200UTC-1800UTC), you should notice improving wind conditions as the center weakens and is a bit further off the coast. As the low moves more offshore, we still expect weak high pressure ridging to develop from a broader high cell over the central N/Pacific near 35N 175W with the ridge extending W-WNW toward/across 44N 160E through Wed/1200UTC. The combination of the front the west and high ridge to the south should produce a more SSW-ly after/about Tue/1200UTC that tends to dominate and may even increase a bit through Thur/0000UTC.

This ridge will provide a more stable/comfortable ride toward the Aleutians, but also help block a cold front to the west from moving quickly eastward. Outlook data suggests the high ridge pattern should continue to dominate the NW Pacific area, while a new low center developing SE of the low described above moves slowly north/east and becomes a broader low center SE of the Aleutian Islands and south of Kodiak Islands through Aug 9-11.

We continue to suggest a track closer to the coast of northern Japan/Hokkaido and toward/off the southern Kuril Islands as necessary to provide the most comfortable ride. However as conditions improve we suggest increasing your speed and taking the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor. We do expect you'll be able to begin increasing speed in/about 24hrs, maybe as long as 36hrs as linger NE swells will take a bit longer to subside.

Expect along the suggested route:

Fri 02/1800UTC - Sat 03/0000UTC (maintaining a slower speed still continued best)
Wind: NNW-NNE 15-25kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 5-7ft. 5-7sec.
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, Combined sea/swell of 10-11ft still expected. Period: 9-12sec.

Sat 03/0000UTC - Sun 04/0000UTC (maintaing a slower speed, but increasing speed if possible by Sun/0000UTC)
Wind: NNE-NW 15-20kt, gusty through Sat/1200UTC then subside NW-WNW 12-18kts through Sun/0000UTC
Sea: 5-7ft, start to subside to 4-6ft then 3-5ft as the winds ease after Sat/1200UTC.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, upto 9-10ft still possible through Sun/0000UTC. 9-12sec.

Sun 04/0000UTC - Mon 05/0000UTC (increasing your cruising speed by now (if not done already) would be best)
Wind: Backing NW-SW by Mon/0000UTC; 12-18kts, to as low as 05-10kts by Sun/1200UTC. Winds direction could vary at times.
Sea: 3-4ft, 7-9sec
Swell: Slowly subsiding ENE-E to 6-8ft by Sun/0900UTC, then 5-7ft through Mon/0000UTC. 10-13sec.

Mon 05/0000UTC - Tue 06/0000UTC (sailing at an increased cruising speed, direct toward Attu)
Wind: SW-SSE 08-15kts. Wind direction could vary at times. SW-WNW 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: ENE to ESE 4-6ft. 8-11sec

Tue 06/0000UTC - Wed 07/0000UTC
Wind: Range W-SSW 015kts.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Mixed ESE to SSW 4-6ft. 8-10sec

Wed 07/0000UTC - Thu 08/0000UTC
Wind: WSW-SW 10-18kt.
Sea: 3-4ft.
Swell: Becoming predominantly from the SSW 4-6ft, combined sea/swells could beach 7-8ft by Thur/0000UTC, 8-10sec.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. Please keep us advised when you increase your speed for the Attu Island area. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


August 1, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1653UTC 01 AUG 2013

Available observations indicate NW-NE winds ranging 15-25kts from northern Japan toward east of Hokkaido. The only available ship observation near 38.3N 143.4E indicated winds NNE 11kt, seas 2-3ft. Swells: ENE 10ft. See the latest surface analysis with your estimated position.

No big changes in the pattern the next few days, as low pressure to your east/north continues to produce the rougher conditions off Japan. The low is expected near 43N 154E (994mb) by 02/1200UTC, 43N 155E (996mb) by 03/1200UTC, then 44N 159E (1001mb) by 04/1200UTC. By Sun/04 the low should begin to weaken steadily as the low reaches 45N 161E (1009mb) through 05/1200UTC then stalls near 44N 161E (1011mb) through 06/1200UTC.

As the low moves eastward of 155E-160E, the winds are expected to east and gradually become more SW-S as a weather front attempts to approach from the west. However, the front should stay to the west while a new area of high pressure develops to your south through Wed/1200UTC and continues. This ridge pattern should broaden across the NW Pacific from off of the Kuril Islands north/east toward the Aleutian Islands, thus why increasing your speed when you can will help you take advantage of the more favorable wind/sea conditions. We will have to watch the movement of the weather front as it eventually moves eastward into the western Pacific through Aug 7-9, but at least the winds should remain more southerly along the eastern side of it.

We continue to suggest a track closer to the coast of Japan/Hokkaido and toward/off the southern Kuril Islands. However as conditions improve we suggest increasing your speed and taking the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor. The NE swells will take longer to subside when compared to the winds.

Thur 01/1800UTC - Fri 02/0000UTC
Wind: NNE-NE 15-25kts and gusty at times.
Sea: 6-8ft tending to subside a bit to 5-7ft through Fri/0000UTC. 6-7sec period.
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, combined sea/swells of 10-11ft still expected through period, 8-11sec.

Fri 02/0000UTC - Sat 03/0000UTC (maintaining a slower speed still continued best)
Wind: NNW-NNE 15-25kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 5-7ft. 5-7sec.
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, Combined sea/swell of 10-11ft still expected. Period: 9-12sec.

Sat 03/0000UTC - Sun 04/0000UTC (maintaing a slower speed as necessary, but increasing speed if possible)
Wind: NNE-NW 15-20kt, gusty through Sat/1200UTC then subside NW-WNW 12-18kts through Sun/0000UTC
Sea: 5-7ft, start to subside to 4-6ft then 3-5ft as the winds ease after Sat/1200UTC.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, upto 9-10ft still possible through Sun/0000UTC. 9-12sec.

Sun 04/0000UTC - Mon 05/0000UTC (increasing your cruising speed by now (if not done already) would be best)
Wind: Backing NW-SW by Mon/0000UTC; 12-18kts, to as low as 05-10kts by Sun/0600UTC. Winds direction could vary at times.
Sea: 3-4ft, 7-9sec
Swell: Slowly subsiding ENE-E to 6-8ft by Sun/0900UTC, then 5-7ft through Mon/0000UTC. 10-13sec.

Mon 05/0000UTC - Tue 06/0000UTC (sailing at an increased cruising speed, direct toward Attu)
Wind: SW-SSE 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: ENE to ESE 4-6ft.

Tue 06/0000UTC - Wed 07/0000UTC
Wind: Range WSW-SSW 015kts.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: ESE to SSW 4-6ft.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 31, 2013
To: Captain Jim - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1653UTC 31 JULY 2013

We note the last reported track on the live tracking was nearly 12hrs ago. Your blog comments are also noted and appreciated. I've also attached the latest forecast chart. It is from the earlier data run, but it won't be our for a bit. However, this one is still valid.

The latest observations indicate NE winds of 10kts in your location, but based on your earlier reports, I suggest those reports may be in error and believe they are closer to 20kts.

The low pressure area that has brought the increased winds is near 40N 150E. This low is not expected to move quickly over the next 48-72hrs as the low should reach near 42N 153E by Fri/1200UTC. However, the low should begin to weaken thereafter as it moves across 44N 158E, weakening further through 45N 162E through Sun/1200UTC. Thereafter the low should continue to weaken and dissipate through Mon/1200UTC. As the low moves east/north, high pressure will have an opportunity move across the NW-W Pacific Ocean. It will be this high that produces a more favorable wind/sea pattern for your transit toward the Aleutian Islands.

With the slow motion of the low, the roughest NE-ly sea/swell conditions will remain in the 7-10ft range for at least the next 48hrs to possibly as long as 72hrs. Thereafter gradually subsiding conditions are expected with the weakening/exiting low and approaching high pressure area. In addition, winds should also become more WSW-SW due to the associated high pressure pattern. Once the NE swells start to ease, you should consider increasing your speed along the direct route toward Attu Island.

Outlook data continues to suggest the high pressure area will tend to dominate the W-NW Pacific through at least Tue/1200UTC.

We continue to suggest a track closer to the coast of Japan/Hokkaido and toward/off the southern Kuril Islands. However as conditions improve we suggest increasing your speed along the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor. The NE swells will take longer to subside when compared to the winds. Fortunately, the swells will tend to lengthen as they slowly subside and could become more SW-ly by the end of the forecast period.

Wed 31/1800UTC-Thur 01/0000UTC (during this period a slightly slower speed would tend to be best)
Wind: NE-ly 15-25kts, gusty/30kt at times.
Sea: 6-8ft, 6-8sec.
Swell: Building NE-ly 6-8ft. Combined sea/swells of 9-11ft expected. 7-10sec.

Thur 01/0000UTC - Fri 02/0000UTC (during this period a a slightly slower speed would tend to be best)
Wind: NNE-NE 12-20kts, upto 20-25kts and gusty through/about Thur/1200UTC.
Sea: 6-8ft early, tending to subside a bit to 5-7ft through Fri/0000UTC. 6-7sec period.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, combined sea/swells of 9-11ft still expected through period, 8-11sec.

Fri 02/0000UTC - Sat 03/0000UTC (maintaining a slower speed still continued best)
Wind: NNW-NNE 15-20kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 5-7ft. Seas could be closer to 4-5ft if you closer to the coast of Hokkaido. 5-7sec.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, Combined sea/swell of 9-10ft still possible through/about Fri/1200UTC. 9-12sec.

Sat 03/0000UTC - Sun 04/0000UTC (maintaing a slower speed as necessary, but increasing speed if possible)
Wind: Starting to back NNE-NW 10-20kts early, then easing 12-18kts to 10-15kts through the period.
Sea: upto 5-7ft early, then easing to 4-5ft by Sat/1200UTC then 3-4ft through Sun/0000UTC.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, subsiding to 5-7ft through period, 10-12sec.

Sun 04/0000UTC - Mon 05/0000UTC (increasing your cruising speed by now (if not done already) would be best)
Wind: Backing W-SW by Mon/0000UTC; 10-15kts, as low as 05-10kts at times.
Sea: 2-4ft, 7-9sec
Swell: Slowly subsiding ENE-E to 6-8ft by Sun/0900UTC, then 5-7ft through Mon/0000UTC. 10-13sec.

Mon 05/0000UTC - Tue 06/0000UTC (sailing at an increased cruising speed)
Wind: SW-SSW 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft.
Swell: Any ENE to ESE swells will tend to become mixed with some SW swells, 4-6ft.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 30, 2013
To: Captain Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1800UTC 30 JULY 2013

Thanks for your last report Captain. We note the last live tracking report was over 7hrs ago.

The low center has moved offshore and is beginning to strengthen. The low is near 37N 148E and should move very slowly toward the NE-NNE the next 48hrs reaching 42N 152E by Thur/1200UTC, 43N 153E through Fri/1200UTC, then 43N 148E by Sat/1200UTC. The low should continue to move more eastward through Sun/1200UTC reaching 44N 161E and 47N 165E through Mon/1200UTC.

As you can see by the above forecast, the low center is now expected to move very slowly toward the east/north over the next 4-5 days. The slower movement of the low will allow the rougher NE-ly swells to continue a bit longer. This will also likely require you to continue your slower speed and a more coastal transit as you move near/north of 40N/lat.

As the low moves further away from the coast, the expected NE-ly swells will continue to lengthen and slowly subside as you tend to travel closer to Hokkaido and the southern Kuril Islands Fri-Sun. It may take as long as Sun/04 or even Mon/05 before the NE swells subside and begin to shift to more tenable levels where you can begin to increase your speed.

For now your speed of/around 8.5kts to SE of Tokyo your waypoint looks good. Thereafter we would suggest a track closer to the coast of Japan/Hokkaido and toward/off the southern Kuril Islands, then as conditions improve increasing your speed direct along the direct route toward the Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range) then most direct Dutch Harbor.

Tue 30/1800UTC - Wed 31/0000UTC
Wind: Tending to shift SW-WSW to Variable-N 10-18kt, gusty through period. Some showers/thunderstorms possible.
Sea: 4-5ft.
Swell: SW-ly 4-6ft. 7-10sec.

Wed 31/0000UTC-Thur 01/0000UTC (during this period a slightly slower speed would tend to be best)
Wind: N-NE 12-20kts, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-5ft. Upto 6-7ft possible.
Swell: Any SW swells tend to become mixed and become NE-ENE 5-7ft during the period, 7-10sec.

Thur 01/0000UTC - Fri 02/0000UTC (during this period a a slightly slower speed would tend to be best)
Wind: NNE-NE 12-20kts.
Sea: 4-6ft, to as much as 7ft. 6-7sec period.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, to as much as 9ft possible by Fri/0000UTC, 8-11sec.

Fri 02/0000UTC - Sat 03/0000UTC (maintaining a slower speed still continued best)
Wind: NNW-NNE 15-21kt, but as much as 20-25kts developing by/after Fri/0600UTC.
Sea: 5-7ft, however, lowest closer to the coast the coast of Hokkaido, 5-7sec.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, 9-12sec.

Sat 03/0000UTC - Sun 04/0000UTC (maintaing a slower speed as necessary, but increasing speed if possible)
Wind: N-NE 15-22kt, upto 25kts still possible through/about Sat/0600UTC, then easing N-NE 12-18kts to 10-15kts.
Sea: upto 5-7ft still possible, but easing to 4-5ft after Sat/1200UTC then 3-4ft through Sun/0000UTC.
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, 9-12sec.

Sun 04/0000UTC - Mon 05/0000UTC (increasing your speed during this period would be likely)
Wind: Gradually easing/veering NE-SE to S-SW by Mon/0000UTC; 10-15kts, as low as 05-10kts a titmes.
Sea: 3-4ft, 7-9sec.
Swell: Slowly subsiding ENE-E to 6-8ft by Sun/0900UTC, then 5-7ft through Mon/0000UTC. 10-13sec.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. Please keep us advised of any changes to your itinerary. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 29, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1800UTC 29 JULY 2013

We also include the 29/1200UTC surface analysis with your estimated position. We note the live tracker has not reported your position since about 1100UTC/29th.

We continue to watch the development of low pressure off the coast of Japan. We expect the low center to organize near 36N 145E through 30/1200UTC, then move to 37N 149E by 31/1200UTC, 41N 154E then 42N 156E through 02/1200UTC. During this period the low should slowly gain strength to as low as 990mb by 02/1200UTC, but the low should be far enough to the east that the winds where you won't experience gale force conditions.

What will impact the ride will be the expected increasing in NE-ly swells from abeam Tokyo, but the highest swells won't occur until you near 40N/lat and likely continue to/about 45N. Fortunately, we still expect the low center to continue moving seaward through Sun/04th and this will allow a broader high pressure area to move from the Sea of Okhotsk area on Fri/02nd east across the Kuril Islands to the NW Pacific Ocean through Sun/1200UTC-Mon/1200UTC

Once the swells begins to subside and the winds start to veer/ease as you get on the west side of the ridge over the course of the coming weekend, you should consider increasing speed in order to take advantage of the high ridge across the NW Pacific during Aug 3-8. You may be able to slow it down some as you reach the Attu/Buldir island area, but staying closer to the high will allow for a more comfortable ride to continue.

We still expect the winds to shift during Wed/0000UTC-1200UTC. However, the shift will be gradual from the SW-WSW to the WNW-NW. Winds should continue to veer NW-N-NE through Thur/0000UTC and prevail through Fri/1200UTC. It will be the period from/about Thur/0600UTC-Sat/0000UTC where you likely experience the highest NE-ly swells.

For now your speed of/around 8.5kts to SE of Tokyo your waypoint looks good. Thereafter we would suggest your coastal off Japan, then best NNE heading toward either 40N 145E then coastal to/off of the Kuril Islands (depending on conditions and how you are ridging). As conditions improve the shortest route (Great Circle) toward the western Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range), then most direct Dutch Harbor.

Mon 29/1800UTC - Tue 30/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-WSW 12-20kt, occ 25kts and gusty. Some showers/thundershowers expected.
Sea: Increase a bit; 4-6ft
Swell: SW-WSW 4-6ft, Combined sea/swells upto 7-8ft at times expected.

Tue 30/0000UTC - Wed 31/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, gusty. Some showers/thunderstorms expected. Chance winds shift SW-NNW 12-20kts by Wed/0000UTC.
Sea: 4-6ft.
Swell: SW-ly 4-6ft. 7-10sec late.

Wed 31/0000UTC-Thur 01/0000UTC (during this period a slightly slower speed would tend to be best)
Wind: Tend tend to veer WNW-NW to possibly N-NE through 01/0000UTC; 12-20kts, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-6ft. Upto 7ft possible.
Swell: Any SW swells tend to become mixed and become NE-ENE 5-7ft during the period, 7-10sec.

Thur 01/0000UTC - Fri 02/0000UTC (during this period a a slightly slower speed would tend to be best)
Wind: NNE-NE 12-20kts.
Sea: 4-6ft, upto 7ft possible at times with a 6-7sec period.
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, 8-11sec.

Fri 02/0000UTC - Sat 03/0000UTC (you may be able to begin increasing your speed late in the period)
Wind: Slowly easing N-NE from 12-20kts to 10-15kts through Sat/0000UTC.
Sea: 4-6ft, subside to 3-5ft late, 7-9sec.
Swell: NE-ENE 6-8ft, 9-12sec. Could begin to subside further 5-7ft with 10-13sec swells late.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. Please keep us advised of any changes to your itinerary. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 28, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1733UTC 28 JULY 2013

A fairly complex, weak low pressure pattern persists off the coast of Japan with a surface trough (weak front) extending WSW across Japan. The complex low should gradually organize the next 24-48hrs and begin to move offshore. We expect the low near 37N 147E by Tue/0000UTC, then near 39N 150E by Wed/1200UTC. The low could reach near Gale force strength near 42N 152E through Thu/1200UTC. We do expect the trailing trough/front to move across your position between Wed/0000UTC-1200UTC.

Outlook data suggests the low center will continue to move north/east reaching 48N 172E through Sun/04 1200UTC. Fortunately the low is not expected to get any stronger beyond its intensity at Thu/1200UTC as it moves offshore. This will help with the development of easier N-NE sea conditions east of Japan toward 43N-45N.

High pressure is expected to prevail from the Sea of Okhotsk and NW Pacific area as the low center begins to move east then north through July 31-Aug 3. The high ridge will help block the low from moving more northward, but also is in the right position so it doesn't block the low and keep it nearly stationary. This should allow for easier NE-E to even SE winds to develop by late in the forecast period. However. NE-ENE swells will likely continue even as the winds begin go veer.

With the front/trough passing your location, SW-WSW winds will shift to the NW-N-NE as you move off the coast of Japan between 34N-38N. Since the high pressure ridge to the west is not expected to be too strong and the low moves slowly, but steadily east/north, the winds on the west side of the front/trough should remain more NW-N to NE 12-20kts.

Since you will be in/near the Kuroshio current off the coast of Japan, just like the Gulf Stream, you should plan for some potentially higher, shorter period NE seas when the winds shift to the N-NE if you are in/near the Kuroshio current. I've included an image that shows the general location of the current off the coast of Japan.

If the low continues to move seaward, then you'll be able to head direct toward the waypoint 42N 148E rather then a track closer to Japan and 40N 145E.

For now your speed of/around 8.0kts to SE of Tokyo your waypoint looks good. Thereafter we would suggest your coastal off Japan, then best NNE heading toward either 40N 145E or 42N148E(preferred) then direct toward the western Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range), then most direct Dutch Harbor.

Expect with the more coastal option Wed/0000UTC-Fri/1200UTC:

Sun 28/1800UTC - Mon 29/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 10-18kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 3-5ft
Swell: SW-SSW 4-5ft.

Mon 29/0000UTC - Tue 30/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, occ 25kts and gusty. Some showers/thundershowers expected.
Sea: Increase a bit; 4-6ft
Swell: SW-WSW 4-6ft, Combined sea/swells upto 7-8ft at times expected.

Tue 30/0000UTC - Wed 31/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, gusty. Some showers/thunderstorms expected. Chance winds shift SW-NNW 12-18kts by Wed/0000UTC.
Sea: 4-6ft.
Swell: SW-WSW 4-5ft. May mix with a longer period NE-ENE swells, 7-10sec late.

Wed 31/0000UTC-Thur 01/0000UTC
Wind: NE-ENE 12-20kts, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-6ft. Upto 7ft possible.
Swell: Swells NE-ENE 5-7ft, 7-10sec.

Thur 01/0000UTC - Fri 02/0000UTC
Wind: NE-ENE 12-20kts early on, tending to veer/ease ENE-SE 10-18kts even 10-15kts by Fri/0000UTC.
Sea: 5-7ft, with a 6-7sec period, early, tending to subside to 4-5ft then 3-4ft through Fri/0000UTC.
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, 8-11sec.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. Please keep us advised of any changes to your itinerary. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 27, 2013
To: Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1755UTC 27 JULY 2013

Thanks for correcting the waypoint.

No big change in the pattern the next few days. High pressure ridging lays west/east to your south and a stalled front lays WSW-SW across Japan to the east coast of China. Between these two systems, a persistent SW-ly wind/sea flow will continue as you make your way toward abeam Tokyo.

However, we do expect some gradual changes by Wed/0000UTC as low pressure deepens along the stalled front and moves slowly seaward. The low should begin to organize/deepen near 40N 152E by Thur/0000UTC. This low should reach Gale strength near 40N 165E through Fri/0000UTC, then moves slowly ENE-ward through Sat/03-1200UTC.

As the low moves slowly out to sea the cold front will move offshore and it will cross your location (around Wed/0000UTC, as of now). A broad area of high pressure is expected to move eastward across the Sea of Okhotsk with ridging extending south toward northern Japan by as early as Thur/1200UTC. The ridge should remain nearly stationary, but the high cell should move slowly eastward across the NW Pacific through Sun/04-0000UTC where it should remain in control through Mon/05-1200UTC

As the low deepens the winds are expected to shift to a more NE direction, but its slowly E-ENE movement will help maintain longer period and rougher NE-ly swell from off the east coast of Japan NE toward eastern Honshu through Fri/1200UTC. Once the high moves eastward, the swells will subside and the winds will gradually veer NE-E to SE-SW as you near the front.

Ideally, it will be best to track closer to the high ridge once you pass east of Tokyo, but the developing NE-ly pattern will tend to hinder that. During Wed/0000UTC-Fri/1200UTC, a track closer to Japan would likely be best in order to keep you closer to the high ridge.

For now your speed of 8.0kts to SE of Tokyo looks good (your waypoint) looks good. Thereafter we would suggest your coastal off Japan (toward approx 40N 145E) best NNE, then direct toward the western Aleutian Islands (Attu-Buldir range), then most direct Dutch Harbor. I would suspect by the end of the forecast period (as conditions allow) you'll need to increase speed in order to take advantage of the high ridge pattern. Lingering NE conditions will determine when you'll be able to do that. As of now, it likely won't be before Fri/0000UTC.

If the NE wind/sea/swells are easier than forecast, then rather closer to the coast of Japan, you'll be able to consider a waypoint that is further east like 42N 148E then direct toward Attu-Buildir.

Expect with the more coastal option Wed/0000UTC-Fri/1200UTC:

Sat 27/1700UTC - Sun 28/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 10-18kts, occ gusty at times.
Sea: 3-4ft.
Swell: SW-WSW 3-5ft. 7-9sec.

Sun 28/0000UTC - Mon 29/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 10-18kt, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-5ft by 29/0000UTC
Swell: SW-SSW 4-5ft.

Mon 29/0000UTC - Tue 30/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, occ 25kts and gusty. Some showers/thundershowers expected.
Sea: Increase a bit; 4-6ft
Swell: SW-WSW 4-6ft, Combined sea/swells upto 7-8ft at times expected.

Tue 30/0000UTC - Wed 31/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, gusty. Some showers/thunderstorms expected. Chance winds shift SW-NNW 12-18kts by Wed/0000UTC.
Sea: 4-6ft.
Swell: SW-WSW 4-5ft. May mix with a longer period NNE-NE swells, 7-10sec late.

Wed 31/0000UTC-Thur 01/0000UTC
Wind: NE-ENE 12-20kts, gusty at times.
Sea: 4-6ft. Upto 7ft possible.
Swell: Swells NE-ENE 5-7ft, 7-10sec.

Thur 01/0000UTC - Fri 02/0000UTC
Wind: NE-ENE 12-20kts, gusty
Sea: 5-7ft, with a 6-7sec period
Swell: NE-ENE 7-9ft, 8-11sec.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. Please keep us advised of any changes to your itinerary. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 26, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1638UTC 26 JULY 2013

Thanks for your change of course remark. For my records and more accurate tracking, please advise your intended waypoints to abeam Nojimasaki and to Dutch Harbor.

Available observations indicate SSW-SW winds ranging 10-20kts near your location. We note a tropical disturbance near 5.4N 129.89E. The area has some potential for further development over the next day or two, but is not expected to impact your transit.

A stalled weather front continues to lay from Japan WSW across the East China sea to eastern China. The front is not expected to move much the next 3-4 days as weak waves of low pressure develop along the front. The front is expected to move east/south and well south of the coast of Japan beginning by/about Wed/1800UTC then continues to move further offshore through Fri/0000UTC.

The front off the coast of Japan is expected to be weaker compared to the when the front moves well offshore and when an associated low center deepens. Once you move across the front, a broad area of high pressure is expected to move eastward across the western Bering Sea through Fri/02-1200UTC with a ridge extending SSW toward northern Japan. So, the winds will tend to shift SW-WSW to a more N-NE direction as you near/pass Nojimasaki and continue north toward Dutch Harbor.

Fortunately, SW-ly winds are expected to prevail the next 4-5 days as you travel off the coast of Japan, then as long as you are closer to the coast when the winds shift to the NW-N, the front it self should not have a significant impact on your comfort.

Along the direct route toward the SE coast of Japan (toward Nojimasaki) then direct Dutch Harbor via the Aleutian Islands at/about 8.0kts, expect:

Fri 26/1700UTC - Sat 27/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-WSW 10-18kts.
Sea: 2-4ft 4-6sec.
Swell: Mixed SE & SW SW-WSW 3-5ft through the period; 7-10sec.

Sat 27/0000UTC - Sun 28/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kts, occ gusty at times.
Sea: 3-5ft.
Swell: SW-WSW 3-5ft. 7-9sec.

Sun 28/0000UTC - Mon 29/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, gusty/25kts
Sea: 4-6ft by 29/0000UTC
Swell: SW-SSW 4-6ft. Combined sea/swells of 7-8ft are expected.

Mon 29/0000UTC - Tue 30/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 15-21kt, occ 25kts and gusty. Some showers/thundershowers expected.
Sea: 4-6ft
Swell: SW-WSW 4-6ft, Combined sea/swells upto 7-8ft at times.

Tue 30/0000UTC - Wed 31/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 15-21kt, occ 25kts, gusty. Some showers/thunderstorms expected.
Sea: 4-6ft.
Swell: SW-WSW 4-5ft. May become more confused/mixed during period.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 25, 2013

To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1650UTC 25 JULY 2013

Please note the attached chart does says Atlantic, but it is for the N/Pacific Ocean. Sorry for the confusion.

Observations indicate lighter SSW-WSW winds of 10-15kts off the NE coast of Taiwan. However, increasing SW-ly winds of 20-25kt, (even 30kt) are noted SE of Japan near 30N/lat.

In the short term, the high pressure ridge pattern remains weak, but continues to lay westward across Taiwan. A stalled weather front also persists across Japan the next 48-72hrs. One of the low centers is expected to develop across Japan starting/about Sat/1200UTC and moves slowly north/east through Sun/1200UTC. The low should move slowly north/east through Wee/31st and Thur/01. As the low moves north/east, a trailing cold front will develop and it should push slowly eastward out to sea.

As the low/front clear the coast of Japan, high pressure is expected to begin forming across the Sea of Japan/north of Japan beginning by/about Wed/1200UTC and continues through/beyond Thu/1200UTC. As the high forms, a second high cell will begin to develop across the Bering Sea and an elongated ridge pattern should develop/prevail between these two cells.

This high pressure pattern should dominate the waters from the east coast of Japan (Nojimasaki) toward the western Aleutian Islands during the first few days of August. Even though the ridge pattern should weaken at times, it should be strong enough to produce a more favorable wind/sea pattern that would allow for travel toward Dutch Harbor.

Over the next 3-4 days, there is little overall change in the expected wind/sea or swell pattern when you compare both routes to each other. the difference will come when you reach the east coast of Japan (near 35N) and begin to move further west/north of the low/center and trailing front.

If you continue along the rhumbline toward 30N 140E (south of Japan), then GC Cape Flattery, shortest route Straits of Juan de Fuca/Vancouver as conditions and safe navigation permit, expect;

Expect at your cruising speed of 8.0kts along the suggested route:

Thu 25/1700UTC - Fri 26/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-SW to possibly more WSW 10-18kt by Fri/0000UTC.
Sea: 2-4ft, 4-6sec.
Swell: Any SW-SSW swells decay as E-ESE a bit more dominant; 3-4ft, 7-10sec

Fri 26/0000UTC - Sat 27/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-WSW 10-16kts.
Sea: 2-3ft 4-6sec.
Swell: Any ESE swells could begin to mix with SW-WSW 3-5ft by late in the period; 7-10sec.

Sat 27/0000UTC - Sun 28/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 10-16kts, occ gusty at times.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Mixed with a SW-WSW tendency 3-5ft. 7-9sec.

Sun 28/0000UTC - Mon 29/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, gusty/25kts
Sea: Increase as the winds increase, 3-5ft, chance upto 6ft by 29/0000UTC
Swell: SW-SSW 4-6ft. Combined sea/swells of 7-8ft possible by late in the period.

If you decide to adjust your heading/course toward the SE coast of Japan (toward Nojimasaki) then direct Dutch Harbor via the Aleutian Islands at/about 8.0kts, expect:

Thu 25/1700UTC - Fri 26/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-SW to possibly more WSW 10-18kt by Fri/0000UTC.
Sea: 2-4ft, 4-6sec.
Swell: Any SW-SSW swells decay as E-ESE a bit more dominant; 3-4ft, 7-10sec

Fri 26/0000UTC - Sat 27/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-WSW 10-18kts.
Sea: 2-4ft 4-6sec.
Swell: Tending to a more SW-WSW direction; 3-5ft through the period; 7-10sec.

Sat 27/0000UTC - Sun 28/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 10-18kts, occ gusty at times.
Sea: 3-4ft
Swell: SW-WSW 3-5ft. 7-9sec.

Sun 28/0000UTC - Mon 29/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 12-20kt, gusty/25kts
Sea: 4-6ft by 29/0000UTC
Swell: SW-SSW 4-6ft. Combined sea/swells of 7-8ft are expected.

As you can see with the attached forecast chart, the low center that develops across the Japan area has the potential to become a Gale low center from Sun/28th and beyond. This would make for a rougher wind/sea pattern from the 30N 140E area eastward until you are clear from the low center and trailing cold front. Chances are you would need to adjust your speed and commence a more easterly heading, which could last for several days.

We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. Please advise if you adjust your course/heading toward Japan and/or increase your speed. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 24, 2013

Here is the forecast Jim. Fortunately, not much weather going on from your location to the waypoint (w/p).

B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI



July 23, 2013
To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1622UTC 23 JULY 2013

Thanks for your departure report. I see the live tracking is currently reporting your position every 10min.

No significant changes in the pattern. Currently satellite imagery indicates no suspect areas of convection across the South China Sea or tropical western Pacific Ocean. Also, skies are generally clear from Hong Kong toward northern Taiwan as well as the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Available observations indicate light SE-SSE winds across the Taiwan Straits and east of Taiwan as well as ENE along the route toward 30N 140E. High pressure ridging continues to lay WSW across Taiwan with little change over the next 24hrs or so. We do expect the ridge to weaken a bit as it drifts southward along 20N through Thur-Fri, but will remain strong enough to produce a veering SE-SW to even SW-W through the coming weekend.

However, we continue to watch with interest the expected storm track of low centers over the next week or two. A stalled/complex frontal pattern across the Japan area Mon/29-Tue/30 may see the development of a low center SE of Japan near 35N 140E by Mon/0000UTC. This low would tend to move ENE-NE across 40N 150E through Wed 31/0000UTC while a trailing cold front extending SSW to as far south as 25N will risk producing some shower/thunderstorm activity as it crosses your location near 30N 140E through Tue/30-1200UTC-Wed 31/0000UTC.

Since the low center tends to move steadily north/east, there shouldn't be much of a pressure/wind gradient once this front moves through, so you should (for now) be able to continue your NE heading toward Vancouver. It may still be necessary to adjust your heading nearing/after 140E, but for now no changes in the route are suggested.

We continue to suggest at your current cruising speed of 8.0kt, the shortest route to north of Taiwan then easterly between Naha (south of Okinawa) and Miyako-Jima (southern Ryukyu Islands) then rhumbline toward 30N 140E (south of Japan), then GC Cape Flattery, shortest route Straits of Juan de Fuca/Vancouver as conditions and safe navigation permit. We will watch this pattern very closely and keep you well advised.

Expect at your cruising speed along the suggested route:

Tue 23/1700UTC - Wed 24/0000UTC
Wind: ESE-SSE 10-16kt through Wed/0000UTC
Sea: 2-4ft, 4-6sec.
Swell: ESE-SE 3-5ft. Combined sea/swells 6ft possible, 7-9sec

Wed 24/0000UTC - Thu 25/0000UTC
Wind: Veering SE-S to SSW; 12-18kts. Winds more S-SSW by/after Wed/1200UTC
Sea: 3-4ft, 4-6sec. Seas could be locally 1-2ft passing NW Taiwan.
Swell: Mostly E-ESE 3-5ft. 7-10sec.

Thu 25/0000UTC - Fri 26/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-SW to possibly more WSW 10-18kt by Fri/0000UTC.
Sea: 2-4ft, 4-6sec.
Swell: E-ESE 3-4ft, 7-10sec

Fri 26/0000UTC - Sat 27/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-WSW 10-15kts.
Sea: 2-3ft 4-6sec.
Swell: Any ESE swells could begin to mix with SW-WSW 3-5ft. during the period, 8-11sec.

Sat 27/0000UTC - Sun 28/0000UTC
Wind: SW-WSW 10-16kts, occ gusty at times.
Sea: 2-4ft
Swell: Mixed with a SW-WSW tendency 3-5ft. 7-9sec.


We will continue to watch/update daily through arrival. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 22, 2013

To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA  www.oceanmarinenav.com   
1145UTC 22 JULY 2013
 
Thanks for confirming receipt of our last forecast. 

Currently, satellite imagery indicates no suspect areas of convection across the South China Sea or tropical western Pacific Ocean. Also, skies are generally clear from Hong Kong toward northern Taiwan. 

The overall pattern or route has not changed since our last update. High pressure ridging continues to lay WSW across Taiwan. Just south of the ridge a more E-ESE wind prevails from Hong Kong toward southern Taiwan. Observations indicate winds are ESE-ly 15kts with sea/swells of 5ft. Toward northern Taiwan observations indicate winds ENE 10kts  but the Island of Taiwan is helping to keep the seas down a bit, closer to 2-4ft. Closer to the ridge (east of Taiwan) winds tend to veer SE-SSE to SSW 10-15kts. 

The ridge line should lay more westward as the main high cell tends to drift south toward 20N 135E through Wed/1200UTC where it tends to remain stationary through July 26-27. The storm track will also keep the low center moving ENE-NE across the Japan/Sea of Japan area toward the east/north. South of the low centers, cold front will tend to extend SW-WSW south of Japan and very close to the waypoint of 30N 140E. We don't expect strong passages as you near this waypoint, but a stronger WSW-ly flow of 15-25kts could develop which would easily produce sea/swells of 6-8ft from the waypoint and ENE-ward toward 140E-150E. 

There is a slight concern that low pressure could deepen near 48N 162E with a stronger cold front trailing to the south/west during July 30-31. It is because of this trend it may be better to either travel just south of the waypoint at 30N140E or continue to the waypoint and parallel sail (eastward) for a period of time until you are closer to the high ridge and where you can begin your more northern (GC route). 

Based on a departure Tue/morning (between Tue 0800LT-1200LT) we continue to suggest at normal/cruising speed, the shortest route to north of Taiwan then easterly between Naha (south of Okinawa) and Miyako-Jima (southern Ryukyu Islands) then rhumbline toward 30N 140E (south of Japan), then GC Cape Flattery, shortest route Straits of Juan de Fuca/Vancouver as conditions and safe navigation permit. If may become necessary to adjust the waypoint 30N 140E a bit more to the south or continue to the waypoint and possibly parallel sail for a period of time in order to place the vessel closer to the high ridge where the overall wind pattern will be more favorable, then adjusting along a more ENE-NE heading as conditions allow. We will watch this pattern very closely and keep you well advised. 

Based on your departure Tue/23-am around 10.5kt at normal cruising to northern Taiwan, then eastward  expect: 

Tue 23/0000UTC - Wed 24/0000UTC  
Wind: ENE-ESE 12-18kt to ESE-SE through Wed/0000UTC
Sea:  2-4ft, 4-6sec.  
Swell: ESE-SE 3-5ft. Combined sea/swells 6ft possible, 7-9sec

Wed 24/0000UTC - Thu 25/0000UTC  
Wind: Veering SE-S, maybe some SSW closer to 25/0000UTC; 12-18kts. Subside to 10-15kt through Thu/0000UTC
Sea:  2-4ft, 4-6sec. 
Swell: Mostly E-ESE 3-5ft. 7-10sec.  

Thu 25/0000UTC - Fri 26/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-SW to even WSW 05-15kts. 
Sea: 2-4ft, as low as 1-2ft possible at times, 4-6sec. 
Swell:  E-ESE 3-4ft, 7-10sec

Fri 26/0000UTC - Sat 27/0000UTC
Wind: SSW-WSW 10-18kts. 
Sea:  2-4ft  4-6sec.
Swell: as the wind direction become more SW-ly, so will the swells. 3-5ft, upto 6-7ft by Sat/0000UTC, 8-11sec.  

Sat 27/0000UTC - Sun 28/0000UTC
Wind: WSW-ly 12-20kts, occ gusty at times. 
Sea: Gradually building 4-6ft, could reach upto 7ft during the highest winds. 
Swell: Any E-ESE winds tend to become more SW-WSW 3-4ft. 7-9sec. 

Please advise your departure and if able your daily noon position, weather, course and any comments. We will watch the Nordhavn site for at least your position, but would like to receive specific information direct from you while underway. 

We will watch the updated data set later today and if there are changes to the forecast, we will send and updated forecast before you depart Tue/am. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 20, 2013

To: Captain Jim Leishman - M/Y NORDHAVN 120
Fm: O.M.N.I./USA www.oceanmarinenav.com
1600UTC 18 JULY 2013

Tropical Storm 08W has moved inland and no further advisories are being issued.

However, we note a tropical low has developed near 14.0N 114.7E. This area has been updated from a low probably of development to a medium chance of development by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). If this trend continues, the JTWC may upgrade further with a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) or even tropical cyclone advisories within the next 24-36hrs.

The area is not expected to move quickly once it begins to move. Currently the steering pattern is very weak, but over the next day or two, a NNW-NW track is expected to develop which should bring this low toward Hainan Island. It is also possible that a more NNW heading will persist which could bring a tropical depression/tropical storm closer to Hong Kong before the end of the weekend.

Even if the low tracks closer to Hainan Island, expect increasing S-SE wind/sea/swell conditions from Hong eastward to south of Taiwan

We continue to suggest the shortest route to south of Taiwan (Bashi Channel) then sailing south/east of the Ryukyu Islands rhumbline toward 30N 140E (south of Japan), then GC Cape Flattery, shortest route Straits of Juan de Fuca/Vancouver as conditions and safe navigation permit. The impact from the low in the South China Sea will be short lived since the it is expected to move toward the NNW-NW.

As you move closer to Taiwan the SE-S influence will gradually ease as you move closer to the high ridge pattern that is expected to dominate the waters of the western Atlantic (east of Taiwan toward 160E and south of Japan) through July 22-27.

The below forecast is based on when you depart. Based on an estimated departure around Fri/midday around 10.5kt, expect:

Fri 19/0400UTC - Sat 20/0000UTC

Wind: Gradually increase SE-ESE 12-18kts to 15-20kts, even gusty 25kts until at least 117E.
Sea: Gradually increase from 3-4ft to 4-6ft and as much as 7ft through the period. 4-5sec, increase to 5-7sec
Swell: SE-SSE 4-6ft. 8-11sec Combined sea/swells could reach 8-9ft if you leave closer to 18/0000UTC

Sat 20/0000UTC - Sun 21/0000UTC
Wind: Gradually ease through the period SE-ESE from 18-22kts, gusty/25kts to 10-18kts and as low as 10-15kt through 19/0000UTC
Sea: Subside from 5-6ft to 3-5ft. Possibly as low as 3-4ft by 19/0000UTC, 5-7sec
Swell: SE-S 4-6ft, tending to mix with and become more easterly 4-6ft after passing the Bashi Channel. 8-11sec

Sun 21/0000UTC - Mon 21/0000UTC

Wind: Range ESE-SSE 08-15kts
Sea: 3-4ft, 5-7sec
Swell: E-ESE 4-6ft, 9-11sec

Mon 22/0000UTC - Tue 23/0000UTC
Wind: Gradually veer SE-SSE to S-SW 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft, as low as 2-3ft at times, 5-7sec
Swell: ESE-SE 2-4ft, 9-11sec. Tending more confused by 23/0000UTC

We will continue to watch and update daily. Please advise your expected departure Hong Kong when known. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 19, 2013

Tropical Storm 08W has moved inland and no further advisories are being issued.

However, we note a tropical low has developed near 14.0N 114.7E. This area has been updated from a low probably of development to a medium chance of development by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). If this trend continues, the JTWC may upgrade further with a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) or even tropical cyclone advisories within the next 24-36hrs.

The area is not expected to move quickly once it begins to move. Currently the steering pattern is very weak, but over the next day or two, a NNW-NW track is expected to develop which should bring this low toward Hainan Island. It is also possible that a more NNW heading will persist which could bring a tropical depression/tropical storm closer to Hong Kong before the end of the weekend.

Even if the low tracks closer to Hainan Island, expect increasing S-SE wind/sea/swell conditions from Hong eastward to south of Taiwan

We continue to suggest the shortest route to south of Taiwan (Bashi Channel) then sailing south/east of the Ryukyu Islands rhumbline toward 30N 140E (south of Japan), then GC Cape Flattery, shortest route Straits of Juan de Fuca/Vancouver as conditions and safe navigation permit. The impact from the low in the South China Sea will be short lived since the it is expected to move toward the NNW-NW.

As you move closer to Taiwan the SE-S influence will gradually ease as you move closer to the high ridge pattern that is expected to dominate the waters of the western Atlantic (east of Taiwan toward 160E and south of Japan) through July 22-27.

The below forecast is based on when you depart. Based on an estimated departure around Fri/midday around 10.5kt, expect:

Fri 19/0400UTC - Sat 20/0000UTC
Wind: Gradually increase SE-ESE 12-18kts to 15-20kts, even gusty 25kts until at least 117E.
Sea: Gradually increase from 3-4ft to 4-6ft and as much as 7ft through the period. 4-5sec, increase to 5-7sec
Swell: SE-SSE 4-6ft. 8-11sec Combined sea/swells could reach 8-9ft if you leave closer to 18/0000UTC

Sat 20/0000UTC - Sun 21/0000UTC
Wind: Gradually ease through the period SE-ESE from 18-22kts, gusty/25kts to 10-18kts and as low as 10-15kt through 19/0000UTC
Sea: Subside from 5-6ft to 3-5ft. Possibly as low as 3-4ft by 19/0000UTC, 5-7sec
Swell: SE-S 4-6ft, tending to mix with and become more easterly 4-6ft after passing the Bashi Channel. 8-11sec

Sun 21/0000UTC - Mon 21/0000UTC
Wind: Range ESE-SSE 08-15kts
Sea: 3-4ft, 5-7sec
Swell: E-ESE 4-6ft, 9-11sec

Mon 22/0000UTC - Tue 23/0000UTC
Wind: Gradually veer SE-SSE to S-SW 08-15kts.
Sea: 2-4ft, as low as 2-3ft at times, 5-7sec
Swell: ESE-SE 2-4ft, 9-11sec. Tending more confused by 23/0000UTC

We will continue to watch and update daily. Please advise your expected departure Hong Kong when known. B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI


July 17, 2013


July 16, 2013


July 15, 2013



July 8, 2013

Due to the presence of Typhoon Soulik (07W) we are starting our daily service for the Maiden voyage of the Nordhavn 120 with this update. 

Typhoon 07W (Soulik) at 2100UTC 19.5N 140.9E. Max winds 65kt with gusts to 80kt near the center. Present motion WNW (290/deg) at 10kts. Gales extend outward 90nm east of the center and 70-85nm west of the center

Date/time (UTC)

Lat

Long

Max Wind

Speed (kt)

Gusts to

Speed (kt)

Radius of 35kt wind NE of center (nm)

Radius of 35kt wind SE of center (nm)

Radius of 35kt wind

SW of center

(nm)

Radius of 35kt wind NW of center (nm)

09/1800

20.4N

136.9E

90

110

120

110

100

115

10/1800

21.9N

131.7E

105

130

150

135

130

150

11/1800

23.5N

126.8E

105

130

150

135

130

150

12/1800

25.9N

122.7E

95

115

160

140

140

160

13/1800

29.2N

119.8E

60

75

175

150

150

175

Further east high pressure ridging is expected to prevail between 35N-40N/175E-140W with the ridge extending WSW toward 30N 140E through July 12-15. It will be this ridge that helps steer the Typhoon toward the WNW. This ridge should break down a bit during July 16-18, resulting in a new high center pushing south across the central N/Pacific with a weaker ridge toward the WSW. This will also give a new low center the chance to move across Japan and across 43N 140E through July 17/1200UTC. Thereafter the low tends to track NE across 50N 165E through 19/1200UTC. 

Based on an ETD of Fri/12th around midday (12/0400UTC) we suggest the vessel remain at least 300nm away from the Typhoon as the impact of wind/sea conditions will extend beyond the area of gale force conditions listed above. In fact, chances are Typhoon Soulik will likely have a slightly stronger max wind speed/gusts as well as a broader area of gales during the coming days. 

As of now, in order to maintain the most distance from the Typhoon, we would suggest the shortest route to south of Taiwan (Bashi Channel) then sailing south/east of the Ryukyu Islands rhumbline toward 30N 140E (south of Japan), then GC Cape Flattery, shortest Straits of Juan de Fuca/Vancouver as conditions and safe navigation permit. 

This route tends to pass well south of Typhoon Soulik as it tends to pass just north of northern Taiwan by 13/0000UTC, then takes advantage of the expected western Pacific and central N/Pacific high ridge pattern that is expected to prevail. This should keep the winds more aft of the beam to following once east of 140E. 

However, depending on the track and forward speed of the Typhoon and the expected conditions that develop between Hong Kong and south of Taiwan, it "may" be best to delay departure until the expected fresh SW-ly conditions have a chance to ease. The conditions will ease a bit once the Typhoon makes landfall which now appears to/about after 13/1200UTC or so around central China. 

For now, expect 

Fri 12/0400UTC (departure) - Sat 13/0000UTC
Wind: Backing W-WSW to SW, 080-15kts, freshen to 15-20kt, then SW-ly 20-25kts, gusty through 13/0000UTC
Sea: Slowly increase from 2-4ft to 5-8ft through 13/0000UTC (to south of Taiwan) 
Swell: SW-SSW 3-5ft, upto 5-7ft possible by 13/0000UTC

Sat 13/0000UTC - Sun 14/0000UTC
Wind: SW-ly 20-30kt, gusty/35kts possible through the period. 
Sea:  Building 7-10ft, upto 12-13ft during the strongest winds. 
Swell: SW-ly 5-8ft. Combined sea/swells of 14-15ft are possible south of Taiwan and NE-ward through the period. 

Sun 14/0000UTC - Mon 15/0000UTC
Wind: SW-ly 20-30kts, gusty early, then subside SW-SSW 15-25kts and maybe as low as 15-20kts by 15/00000UTC. 
Sea: 9-12ft early, tending to gradually subside to 6-7ft through 15/0000UTC
Swell:  SW-ly 6-9ft. However, combined sea/swells of 9-10ft still possible through 15/0000UTC

Mon 15/0000UTC - Tue 16/0000UTC
Wind: Continuing to improve SW-S to even SSE 12-18kts and maybe as low as 10-15kt. 
Sea:  Continue to subside from 5-7ft early, then 3-5ft through 16/0000UTC.
Swell: Slowly improving SW-WSW 6-8ft early, then subside to SW 4-6ft with some ESE swells starting to mix in. 

We will continue to monitor this pattern and update daily until arrival. Please advise your departure, route intent and daily position, weather and speed while enroute.

 
 
 



Nordhavn Fleet

40

43

52

56MS

60

62

63

64

68

72

75EYF

76

78

86

120